The 1230 Wins Breakdown: My 2024–2025 NBA Season Preview (Kinda but Not Really, I Mean C’mon Now, Don’t Trust Me)
In which your valiant yet possibly concussed writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team in the NBA and then explains his reasoning in 123 characters or less.
Let’s start with the ground rules.
Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. Truthfully, it’s an effort to see if the Knicks and the Warriors will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. And, just as important, it’s a chance for me to see how wrong I was last year.
And, as always, I was very wrong. So very wrong. But you know what? Vegas was super wrong as was everyone else, so I don’t feel so bad about it.
OK, maybe a smidge.
Let’s get into it, specifically about my two favorite teams.
The Warriors were a non-stop roller coaster last season. Klay’s slow start. Draymond strangling Gobert. Jokic nailing game-winning buzzer-beating 40-foot bank shots against them. Draymond punching Nurkic. Draymond being suspended for 16 games. The team hitting rock bottom at 19–26. Dejan passing away suddenly. Klay coming off the bench. And all of that led to a spectacular 26–12 season-ending run that helped them earn the last spot in the play-in tournament — and then losing in a shocking blowout to the Kings. And that’s on the eve of a truly chaotic season the year before — which I took that into consideration when thinking about their potential. I actually wrote this sentence: “That was a nightmare of a season, and if most, or just some, of those things just self-correct to normal standards, there’s significant room for improvement.” So…yep.
I wrote other crazy shit like:
“Having Chris Paul this season will pay dividends.” I mean, when he was healthy, sure.
“I like Saric as frontcourt depth.” That lasted, what, three weeks?
And this gem: “I want them to tell one last great championship story. Let’s cross our fingers.” Did they even make the playoffs? (checks notes) Nope.
I had them with 49 wins. They ended up with 46. They should have had 48. So despite all of that, I was somewhat close, although I did have them as the third seed. Missed that one by seven slots!
They were good, but nowhere near good enough.
As for the Knicks, it was a memorable season for them on the court, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, and for me on these pages. I was super on-point.
“Having Hart’s versatility for a whole year and replacing Toppin with DiVincenzo for corner threes is a huge upgrade.” Yes, I wrote that and yes, I got that right.
I even said this: “Brunson was a league-wide revelation, and there’s another level.” I mean, he ended up fifth in MVP voting, so you bet your ass I’m taking a victory lap over that.
And this: “They need to be top 10 (in defense) to really be a powerhouse.” You know where they wound up defensively? Ninth. And you know who was a 50-win powerhouse? The Knickerbockers, that’s who.
Nobody could have predicted the run they went on in the playoffs without Randle and with a depleted bench. Or the time they spent during the season without Randle, Anunoby and Mitch. Or that Anunoby would even be on the roster. Such a bonkers year, in all the right ways.
I had them with 48 wins and the fourth seed. They grabbed 50 wins and the second spot, and they should have had 55 victories. So again, close, but no cigar. I underestimated them.
And I’ll take it.
As for the rest of the league? Yeesh.
Let’s quantify my crappiness. Each year, I see how many times I’m able to nail my pre-season win predictions. I do this by trying to land between the team’s win total (reality) and expected wins total (which speaks to a team’s potential and somewhat removes luck).
And last year, I predicted (hmm, no, that can’t be right, let me double check, holy shit it is, what a loser) one team’s win total correctly: Phoenix. That’s it. I’m usually predict around five teams. To be fair, eleven teams last season were within one win of their expected wins, so I had to hit those numbers almost on the button.
Spoiler alert: I did not.
I had some huge misses. I vastly (as in, by six or more) under-estimated the win totals of nine teams:
- Oklahoma City, Boston, and Houston by 11 wins
- Orlando by 10
- Minnesota, the Clippers and Dallas by 9
- New Orleans by 7
- Chicago by 6.
You know what? Vegas missed on most of them too. I didn’t see Boston and Oklahoma City running away with their Conferences. I had the Western Conference undervalued, in general. And I had Dallas out of the playoffs. Oof.
And I over-estimated the win totals of these six teams:
- Memphis and Toronto by 16 wins
- Detroit by 14
- Charlotte and Portland by 8
- San Antonio by 6.
But to be fair, Memphis was destroyed with injuries. Detroit was historically awful. And…well…okay, the rest I have no explanations for.
What did I learn? That the Western Conference is still much stronger than the Eastern Conference. The worst teams in the NBA are really bad. And you can’t predict the unexpected.
I’m speaking of the change in officiating after the All-Star Break, when the refs allowed them to play, and the game got more physical.
The NBA’s scoring average after the All-Star break dropped. Teams were whistled for four less fouls per game after the break. Which meant that teams shot 5.5 fewer free throws. So do the math. What, you were told there would be no math? OK. Let me break it down. Fewer fouls, fewer free throws, fewer points. And that signaled to defenses that they could take liberties — and they did. Whip all of that together, and the league’s scoring efficiency dropped. Teams scored 115.2 points per 100 possessions before the break, but only 113.1 after. Doesn’t sound like much, but it was.
If you were a player trying to bait the refs into calling touch fouls, they weren’t buying it any longer. For example, just to pick a player randomly, oh I don’t know, let’s say…James Harden. After the All-Star Break, his scoring and free throw attempts all went down. And although his shot attempts went up, his shooting percentage went way down. Will that be his new normal, or will he adapt?
Of course, these numbers are noisy, in that there’s so many other factors to take in beyond just a change in the way the games were called — like injuries, tanking motivations, and more.
All that being said, these teams went on runs after the Break:
- Denver 21–6 (36–19 before)
- Dallas 18–9 (32–23 before)
- Warriors 19–10 (27–26 before)
- Lakers 17–9 (30–26 before)
- Houston 17–11 (24–30 before)
- San Antonio 11–16 (11–44 before)
And these teams played worse:
- Milwaukee 14–12 (35–21 before)
- Clippers 15–14 (36–17 before)
- Cleveland 12–17 (36–17 before)
- Toronto 6–21 (19–36 before)
- Utah 5–21 (26–30 before)
What does that mean? You can extrapolate some things. For Denver, they could get more handsy on the perimeter, which helps a tall, somewhat immobile small forward like Michael Porter Jr. LeBron is a force of nature and can get away with even more of the dark arts of physical play. Ume Idoka coaches a tough style that empowers a young team like Houston (and Dillon Brooks) to play that way without repercussions. And Draymond resumed his more physical play. Hypothetically.
On the flip, with a looser whistle, Harden can’t get away with his ref-baiting antics. Mobley and Allen have trouble with stronger bigs who can push them around. And Giannis took one less free throw a game. That doesn’t sound like much, but he’s such an unstoppable force going to the rim, that defenders felt empowered to take liberties with him.
Or not.
Like I said, it’s all noisy, but worth having in the back of my head when putting this together.
As for the competitive state of the league:
Last year, there were seven teams who had 50 wins, and three with 49. There were eighteen teams over .500. And we had eight teams under 30 wins. That means we had a large pack of really strong teams, and a sad sack of sad sacks.
This year, I’m doubling down on parity. I think the depth of the league will tighten things up. Even though I think the top of the league is stellar, I’m betting on only five teams earning over 50 wins. I’ve got a bonkers twenty teams over .500, and five teams under 30. Like, way under. I just think there’s so much talent in this league right now that’s (mostly) spread around, and the bottom feeders will really do some extra work.
OK, enough with the preamble. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season, and how the league’s 1230 wins will be allocated, with each team’s preview written in 123.0 characters or less, because I love numerical symmetry.
Let’s begin in the West and with those earning participation pins.
15. Portland Trailblazers (23–59) — Some top-end talent, tons of potential, but just too young to do damage. Ayton will be traded. Can Scoot ascend?
14. Utah Jazz (26–56) — Will Hardy is too good of a coach for this. Lauri will shoot them into wins. But the tank will begin sooner than later.
13. Los Angeles Clippers (33–49) — Not buying any of this. Not enough Kawhi. Too much Harden. Depth is an issue. Tough opening for the Intuit Dome.
12. San Antonio Spurs (36–46) — It’s Wemby’s world. Next year will be his season. CP3 will help organize, and the young pieces grow. It’s a step forward.
11. Los Angeles Lakers (42–40) — Sadly, you can’t count on LeBron and AD playing 70+ games again this season. And the rest of the crew has a low ceiling.
And now for the play-in teams:
10. Sacramento Kings (45–37) — DeRozan is a great addition, but spacing is non-existent. They’ll find a way to score, and win, but defense takes a hit.
9. Golden State Warriors (45–37) — Love the new depth, but Steph needs help. Not sure where. Kuminga? Wiggins? Podz? Too many questions, including Draymond.
8. Denver Nuggets (46–36) — Jokic is unreal, but there’s no depth or shooting from self-inflicted ownership miscues. No KCP is huge. Is Murray healthy?
7. Houston Rockets (46–36) — Another big step up for this team. Might be underselling them. Physical play suits them. The improvement is real.
And now, for the playoff teams:
6. New Orleans Pelicans (47–35) — No big man. Ingram’s not wanted. Zion is fragile. And yet, this team is really good. Trey Murphy breaks out.
5. Phoenix Suns (48–34) — It’s do or die for this crew. If they’re healthy, they’re dangerous. Book and KD had great Olympics. Tyus will stabilize.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (48–34) — Defensive juggernaut. Spacing gets tighter without KAT. But Randle will be motivated, and Ant is Ant. Superior depth.
3. Dallas Mavericks (49–33) — Smart roster. Offensively powerful. Defensively iffy. Will Luka win MVP? Klay’s legs determine how far they go.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (53–29) — Ja and team have something to prove. Edey will be huge for them. Another deep team that will love the physical play.
And the Western Conference regular season champs:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (57–25) — The time is now. Chet fits in perfectly. Caruso blends right in. Defensive nightmare. And SGA is a stud.
Overall: Man, this is such a deep conference. The Lakers, Spurs and Clippers would make the Eastern Conference play-in, at least. I think this is the year that the old guard steps away back, and youth steps forward: OKC, obviously. Memphis, in a big way. Minnesota. Houston. New Orleans. Those teams have energy, depth, talent and motivation. And I think the Denvers, Warriors, Lakers and others are just past their expiration dates. They’ll still be competitive, and I’m worried about downgrading the Nuggets like I am, but trajectories are not in their favor. Of course, if Ja goes nuts again, Randle has a mood swing, Zion can’t stay on the court and the Rockets were a mirage, then all of this goes up in smoke. I just don’t think so.
As for the Dubs: I like this roster. Melton, Slo-Mo and Hield bring not just depth, but maturity, intelligence and elite shooting (at least, Buddy will). I think Kuminga’s evolution was real, Podz looks like a solid NBA starter and Trayce fits perfectly. Klay’s shooting was lethal when he was hot, but his defense really faltered. Replacing his minutes and productivity with the newcomers will really help. And Draymond showed last season that he has something left in the tank. I just don’t feel like it’s enough. And I don’t trust Draymond. How can you? But there’s always Steph, and he’s magic. You can never count out a team that he’s on.
Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid, if you’re into that sort of thing:
And now, the least in the East:
15. Brooklyn Nets (17–65) — Rock bottom. Start over. Let tanking season begin right now. Call it Poop for Coop. Lag for Flagg. Or maybe Capture the Flagg?
14. Washington Wizards (18–64) — Hey look, another rock bottom team! But there’s some interesting height here. It’s about Coulibaly and Sarr’s growth.
13. Detroit Pistons (25–57) — Expect a big jump up from 14 wins, but not yet respectable. Big year from Cade. Duran leap. So much more to figure out.
12. Charlotte Hornets (32–50) — They have pieces here. But LaMelo needs to evolve his game. It’s time for him. And if he can, the sky’s the limit.
11. Chicago Bulls (33–49) — Big step backwards. Not sure about the direction of team. Giddey makes them younger, but he’s ball dominant. I like Coby.
How about the play-in teams?
10. Atlanta Hawks (34–48) — Not as bad as you’d think. Jalen is a rising star. Trae is an offensive machine. Snyder has his work cut out here.
9. Toronto Raptors (37–45) — Have a chance to rise and surprise. Quickly, RJ and Barnes are a nice young trio. The rest of the lineup? Sigh.
8. Miami Heat (45–37) — The pieces are there, but things need to fall right. And Jimmy Butler in a contract year doesn’t sound like a good start.
7. Orlando Magic (46–36) — The defense is real but the new physical play doesn’t help. Paolo or Frans need to score big for them. KCP is an ideal fit.
Here’s the contenders with playoff spots.
6. Indiana Pacers (47–35) — I love how they play. Tyrese’s hammy is iffy. Carlisle has the right style for their roster. Siakam fits perfectly.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (48–34) — Last chance saloon. I believe in Giannis and Dame. Deeper bench helps. But Khris is already hurt and Lopez’s getting older.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (49–33) — Deep squad with a big star. Will Mobley evolve and figure out his fit with Allen? Atkinson is the new voice they need.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (50–32) — This team, with PG13 on the roster, is a real threat to win the title, if Embiid is healthy, and that determines everything.
2. New York Knicks (51–31) — New roster will take time to gel, especially with a shorter bench, but Thibs’ teams play to win. Very high ceiling.
And, once again, the Eastern Conference regular season champs:
- Boston Celtics (54–28) — No KP hurts. But they’re deep and elite. And now they have championship bonafides. This team is stacked.
Overall: The top of this conference is excellent. The Celtics, Knicks, Sixers and Bucks can all win the title, if everything falls into place. And then you have Cleveland, Indiana and Orlando, all on the precipice of doing something special. It’s gonna be a dog fight between all of them, with little separating them — except for Boston, who’s in a class by themselves, but not invincible. It’s truly going to come down to who’s healthy, and that goes for the Celtics too. Porzingis unlocks so much for them, and if he’s not himself for the playoffs, there’s a definite opening. After those top seven, it gets dicey.
About the Knicks: I’m super high on them. How can you not be? Mikal Bridges and OD Anunoby are the best set of defensive wings in the league. Josh Hart does everything. KAT is the best big man shooter since Dirk. And that gives Jalen all of the space he needs, even when he really doesn’t need it. Offensively, they’ll be dynamic. Defensively, they’ll be tough. KAT’s rim protection is very questionable, but do you need to rely on it if nodody’s able to get to the hoop? I’m just worried about the bench. McBride, Precious and (eventually) Mitch are fine as a bench mob, but what happens if Anunoby goes down? It gets really tight really quick. I trust this front office will maneuver their cap situation to make something happen, but that bench really worries me.
And before I go on, I just want to give a giant thank you to Julius Randle. He’s such a polarizing player, and I get it. He’s not aesthetically pleasing and he’s a ball stopper. But you know what? He’s a bruising offensive genius. He’s an excellent passer and creator. He can handle the ball. He’s a brute on the glass. And when he wants to be, he’s an effective defender. With the Knicks, he was all bought in (except for when his moods set in), especially when the team was at its lowest. And you know what? Being named All-NBA in two of his five seasons with the Knicks (and on an express train for a third, if he didn’t get hurt last year) is a helluva legacy to set, and he’s gonna go down as a blue-and-orange legend.
Here’s the grid again, if you’re into that sort of thing, and I know you are:
Before I tell you things that I wish I were braver to put into my official predictions, here’s what I said last year:
- “The Orlando Magic take a step beyond the play-in game and make the playoffs. ”Yessir.
- “Harden goes to the Clippers early in the season and they become serious contenders.” Boom, and the “become serious contenders” part was legit until the All-Star Break.
- “The Rockets make the play-in game.” Almost. They got to .500!
- “And in a weird but heartwarming one, Stony Brook alum and Staten Island native Mo Gueye gets a 10-day contract this season with the Toronto Raptors.” Don’t you know it!
And now, for this year’s version:
- The San Antonio Spurs make the play-in game.
- The Atlanta Hawks reach .500.
- Anthony Edwards leads the NBA in scoring.
- Cade Cunningham averages a double-double.
Meh.
So how about the real season?
Western Conference: Minnesota and Phoenix have a tough opening series, but the Suns are desperate. But it really doesn’t matter. It’s OKC’s time, and Denver and then Phoenix are the tests they need to pass. The Suns take them to seven in the second round. Memphis has a history of falling short in the playoffs, and the playoffs get a little chaotic. Let’s say Dallas reaches the conference finals again, and the Thunder get their revenge.
Eastern Conference: Who’s taking down Boston? There’s so many options. Milwaukee gives them everything they want in the second round, but the Celtics move on. The Knicks and Sixers have a rematch of their epic series this year, and the question will be “Who’s healthier?” Between the two right now, gimme the Knicks. And then it’s New York and Boston, and it pains me to say that the Celtics will move on.
The Finals: Oklahoma City just has too much for Boston to answer for. And Boston’s championship run last season, plus Tatum, Jrue and White playing in the Olympics right afterwards, means they just run out of steam. SGA takes MVP honors, and Chet Holmgren becomes a national star.
And now for the individual honors:
Most Valuable Player: It’s between Luka and Shai. And when you go deeper, it comes down to who has to carry more. OKC is loaded, Dallas less so. And Luka grabs it.
Defensive Player of the Year: Wemby. Get used to this. Chet Holgrem will make an interesting case.
Sixth Man of the Year: Donte DiVincenzo. Just not for the team I thought he would win it for.
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey will play a huge role for a playoff team. Reed Sheppard has the bigger long-term potential, but there’s a logjam on that Rockets roster.
Most Improved Player: Trey Murphy. He’s gonna break out this season big time, especially if Ingram gets traded. Just you watch.
Coach of the Year: I had Mark Daigneault last year, and he nailed it. To get a team from bad to great is difficult. To go from great to champions is even harder. And although I have the Thunder winning it, I don’t think he’ll get lauded for it. So let’s roll with Taylor Jenkins of the Memphis Grizzlies for the turnaround they’re about to have (which has more to do with Ja returning and Edey in the middle, but whatevs).
And now, for my position-less but still kinda-positioned All-NBA teams:
First Team:
- Nikola Jokic
- Luka Doncic
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Jalen Brunson (yeah, I said it)
Second Team:
- Devin Booker
- Joel Embiid
- Anthony Edwards
- Victor Wembenyama
- Jayson Tatum
Third Team:
- Kevin Durant
- LeBron James
- Steph Curry
- Jaylen Brown
- Ja Morant
Just missed for whatever reasons you like (including not hitting the minimum games threshold): Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, Cade Cunningham, Anthony Davis, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markinnen, Tyrese Maxey, Jrue Holiday, Zion Williamson, Damian Lillard and Julius Randle.
Here’s my NBA Cup picks. Last year’s inaugural tournament was more fun than I thought it would be. Note that so much of this is predicated on scheduling luck. Sacramento is tough to beat at home. The Jazz as well. I took all of that into consideration. And knowing that really influences who moves on.
- East A: Orlando Magic 3–1
- East B: Miami Heat 3–1
- East C: Boston Celtics 4–0, Cleveland Cavs 3–1 (Wild Card)
- West A: Sacramento Kings 4–0
- West B: Oklahoma City 4–0
- West C: Denver 3–1, Memphis 3–1 (Wild Card)
And the winner? I’ve got Orlando playing Oklahoma City in the final, and the Magic pull off the upset. I know this tournament might seem silly, but I think it’s important to some teams — specifically, giving younger teams like Orlando and Oklahoma City the experience of chasing a championship to focus on and accomplish. And it worked wonders for the Pacers last year, who advanced to the in-season championship and then into the Eastern Conference Finals. For sure, they had a ton of injury luck on the way there, but that previous experience mattered. Ain’t that right, Tyrese?
Let’s close this up. If the refs call the game the way they did it after the All Star Break, I’d be beyond excited. I loved it. Every game felt like playoff basketball, and even FIBA ball, which was tremendous during the Olympics. Every point felt earned instead of gifted.
I think the Knicks have the potential to have an epic, memorable season, one that has the potential for a (dare I say) championship. I trust in Thibs, Brunson, Leon Rose and his staff and the team to make this work. I’m a little worried about injuries, and I’m 85% sold into KAT.
The Warriors can be very competitive and, if all falls right, really good, especially if they pull off a midseason trade that provides a certified Robin for Steph’s Batman. He needs someone. Lauri Markkinan would have been ideal. So if not him, someone like him. And then, they’re golden. Pun intended.
Happy hoops, everyone.
(A big thanks to every media outlet that I borrowed the gifs and images from).
