The 1230 Wins Breakdown: My 2023–2024 NBA Season Preview (Sorta)

In which your valiant yet idiotic writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team and then explains his reasoning in 123 characters or less.

The story of the Knicks last season.

In case you don’t know the deal: Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. It’s really in an effort to see if the Knicks and the Warriors will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. And it’s a chance for me to see how wrong I was last year.

Spoiler alert: Very wrong.

I picked this guy to win Sixth Man of the Year. And that’s not even the worst one.

When it comes to the Warriors last season, I had blinders on. I wrote a huge treatise about Team Turmoils and how you should bet against them, and yet, when it came to the squad that was dealing with the biggest turmoil of them all, with one star Hall of Famer knocking out their young star, I said, and I quote, “My gut tells me that this isn’t the first time Dray’s done something stupid like this, and he and the team have had a ton of practice getting over dramas like this. So it is what it is. I don’t believe it’ll have much of an impact on the regular season or the playoffs, but I also think it cements this season as Draymond’s last with the team. I’ll leave it at that.”

Yeah, you were right, Draymond

Oof.

I also said “Moody and Wiseman will find their way this season into important minutes” and and that I “love (the JaMychal Green) signing.”

I say a lot of things.

As for the Knickerbockers?

Josh Hart was born to be a Knick. So happy he’s on the roster.

I underestimated them, but I did “expect a rebound”. I knew that “Brunson would make a huge difference in many ways”. But nobody expected them to have the league’s third best offense. And that their defense would be 19th. I mean, I wasn’t wrong in thinking that “The Knicks will be tighter defensively. That’s what Thibs hangs his hat on, and he’s brilliant on that side of the court.” So I was correct in their result, but very wrong in how they did it.

Here’s what I got right:

Once again, five times my prediction landed between the team’s expected wins and real wins: Bucks, Raptors, Wizards, Magic and the Spurs. Only one team from the West? Yes. The Western Conference had especially tight windows, and I was waaay off on a bunch of them.

In fact, here’s what I got very wrong.

I had the:

• Celtics winning 9 less games.
• Pistons winning 17 less games (but Cade was out).
• Pacers winning 13 less games.
• Clippers winning 12 more games.
• Warriors and Timberwolves each winning 9 more games.
• Mavericks winning 12 more games.
• Blazers winning 8 more games.
• Kings winning 9 less games.
• Thunder winning 18 less games.
• Jazz winning 16 less games.

Can’t argue with Shaq.

There’s a lot of Western Conference teams in that list. And it’s because that conference was an absolute mess last year. The teams that were supposed to be great had shitloads of issues. And the teams that were supposed to be bad took advantage of those shitloads. So the top underperformed and the bottom overachieved.

And here’s one thing I knew but wasn’t brave enough to predict: The second year of a Jason Kidd coached team always falls apart, and it did. Again. I knew it and didn’t act upon it.

Not every legendary point guard can be a great coach.

What did I learn?

I underestimated the Eastern Conference, even though I had them with ten more wins than their counterpart. And I didn’t realize the entire Western Conference was in such dire turmoil.

Speaking of, did my Team Turmoil predictions line up? Once again, those were teams that had self-inflicted drama.

• The Lakers, with Russell Westbrook, won 3 more than I thought. But they really figured it out after they traded him.
• The Nets, with KD and Kyrie, lost 1 more. But they had a big cushion before they traded them.
• The Pelicans, with a missing Zion, lost 5 more. I don’t know what I was thinking.
• The Sixers, with Harden, won 1 more.
• The Celtics, with the whole Ime Edoka ordeal, won 9 more. And I’m shocked by this.

So that was bullcrap too.

See above.

As for the rest of the league:

Last year, there were six teams who had 50 wins. There were 19 teams over .500! That speaks to the depth of the league (and it happened the year before too). And we had just four teams under 30 wins. That means that there was a huge and strong middle class of teams.

This year, I’m doubling down on parity. I think there will be only five teams with over 50 wins, and just three teams under 30. I’ve got 18 teams over .500 (down by one from last season), I just think there’s so much talent in this league right now that’s (mostly) spread around.

However, this just in from the department of hypocrisy:

The teams I pegged with 50 wins (Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Denver and Phoenix) are the ones with major star power at the top but big questions about their depth. I think, in a perfect world, they can all reach the mid-to-high 50s in wins. But it won’t be perfect, so I capped them.

So what am I trying to say here?

Maybe it’s that depth in star power (as in, having 3–4 elite players on your roster) is better than having two elite players and a deeper cast of teammates. But I’m not sure I believe that. And yet, here I am, going against my gut.

Speaking of guts.

OK, enough with the caveats. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season, and how the league’s 1230 wins will be allocated, with each team’s preview written in 123.0 characters or less, because I love numerical symmetry.

Let’s begin in the West and with those earning participation pins.

What do you do against this?

15. San Antonio Spurs (28–54): Wemby will be a revelation when he plays. I think they’re gonna take it easy on him and gear up to draft a partner for him.

14. Portland Trailblazers (29–53): I love the youth, especially the backcourt of Scoot, Shaedon and Simons. Ayton will be a nice complement. Defense optional.

13. Houston Rockets (30–52): They will be vastly improved by Udoka, Van Vleet and Brooks, but the bar was low. If Green’s game matures, watch out.

12. Utah Jazz (32–50): They’ve got talent and a great coach. Can Lauri do it again? Can Kessler find the next level? Will Keyonte thrive? Dunno.

11. Dallas Mavericks (41–41): Can Luka overcome both Kyrie and Coach Kidd? No way Kyrie makes it through this season, and Kidd has diminishing returns.

And now for the play-in teams:

The best anonymous superstar in the world.

10. New Orleans Pelicans (42–40): I’m out on Zion. But I do believe in the rest of the team they have. I just wish he got his shit together. Fingers crossed.

9. Los Angeles Clippers (42–40): I’m out on them, but Kawhi and PG are so good when they play, which is never. Lue is a great coach. A hard “no” for me.

8. Memphis Grizzlies (43–39): Bane is a star, but no Ja for 25 games and no Adams at all means JJJ will be overexposed. Too many questions and bad vibes.

7. Sacramento Kings (44–38): They’re not surprising the league again. Teams will find ways to stop their offense. And can they repeat their health luck?

And now, for the playoff teams:

Ant Man’s a super hero.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder (46–36): Who doesn’t love them? They and Shai made big leaps last year. Expect a smaller one. Progress! Excited to see Chet.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (47–35): I love them. I think they’re gonna be tough. Ant Man reaches All-NBA status, and it’s put up or shut up time for KAT.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (48–34): A much improved supporting cast, but their ceiling is up to LeBron and AD, and I don’t think they’ll stay healthy.

3. Golden State Warriors (49–33): Chris Paul is exactly what they need. It feels like this is the last real title run for this core. Kuminga breaks out.

2. Phoenix Suns (50–32): It’s hard to bet against KD, Booker and Beal, but they can’t get hurt. No depth at all. They’re asking a lot from KD.

And the Western Conference regular season champs:

1. Denver Nuggets (53–29): Best team. Best player. Best duo. Best fitting roster. The only thing holding me back is their departed bench.

Simply magical.

Overall: I think it’s Denver, and then everyone else. I don’t think they’ll take the regular season too seriously. Phoenix, the Lakers and the Warriors have the firepower to challenge them, but things have to break right to actually beat them. Jokic is that good. I do think Minnesota can upset that top echelon, and Edwards can take over games in a way that very few can. The Thunder are on the precipice of greatness. They made huge strides last year. They’ll make more this year, with Shai and Chet figuring things out. Get your licks in now, because I think their time is next season — and then every other season after that. Memphis has always been the wild card, but honestly, they just seem to self-destruct every season, so why should this be different? No Stephen Adams means JJJ won’t have his muscle, and he’s less of a player as a center. And that Baxter Holmes article about Ja and his dad made it sound like the team isn’t confident that any of this is getting through to him, which is sad.

As for the Dubs:

There are no words.

This is it. Nobody’s getting younger. But having Chris Paul this season will pay dividends. They won’t turn the ball over as much. They won’t get blown out in the non-Steph minutes. Kuminga will thrive playing off of him. He’ll be a supercharged Shaun Livingston, which is what they’re missing. And I like Saric as frontcourt depth. Those aspects right there improve them along the margins. And there’s also this: They won 44 games last year while dealing with the Draymond punch, Wiggins out for half of the year, the Payton trade at midseason and eventual rehab, not being able to win a road game, trying to fit in Wiseman, Klay working himself into shape and the Jordan Poole experience. That was a nightmare of a season, and if most, or just some, of those things just self-correct to normal standards, there’s significant room for improvement. However, losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference playoffs, a departure that early for the first time in a decade, took the bloom off the rose. They’re not invincible anymore. They have holes. And that ceiling that was once the stuff of legends is now quite a bit lower. I want them to tell one last great championship story. Let’s cross our fingers.

Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid.

PREDICTION is my predicted wins for them for this season. VEGAS ODDS is each team’s over/under for this season from DraftKings. EXPECTED WINS is what they were expected to win last season due to their point differential (which is a truer accounting of how they played). OFFENSE RANK and DEFENSE RANK is how they compared to other teams last season on both sides of the court, so we can see what’s repeatable. And PT DIFF RANK is how they compared to other teams by, you guessed it, point differential.

And now, the improved East:

Cade’s gonna have a season this year.

15. Washington Wizards (19–53): They’re not serious about winning this year, and they shouldn’t be. But they’re on the right path for future success.

14. Detroit Pistons (28–54): Cade is gonna reach star status this season. Ivey will improve. And they’ve got talent in the paint. It’s just not enough.

13. Charlotte Hornets (29–53): What a mess. But a healthy LaMelo changes their outlook. We forget how good he is, and Clifford gets more out of him.

12. Chicago Bulls (33–49): Demar and Levine will put up numbers, but the makeup of this roster screams for a rebuild. Expect trades.

11. Brooklyn Nets (36–46): Yes, they got rid of their stars. But they got one back in Mikal, and they have a deep team with not much drop-off.

How about the play-in teams?

I really appreciate understated superstars, like Tyrese Haliburton.

10. Orlando Magic (37–45): I love their potential. Paolo and Franz are studs. They need help at guard and shooting, and they don’t have it yet.

9. Toronto Raptors (41–41): They were better than their record. No Van Vleet will hurt but Nurse is an excellent coach who’ll figure something out.

8. Indiana Pacers (42–40): I really like them. Halliburton is a stud. Toppin will help. They’ve got pieces in place. They just need time to grow.

7. Atlanta Hawks (43–39): Snyder’s a really good coach who improves his team each season. Expect the same. It’s make-or-break for Trae.

Here’s the contenders, each with a legit shot to make serious noise this season.

The undefeated preseason champ.

6. Miami Heat (45–37): Don’t bet against Jimmy and Bam. Don’t forget: Herro is really good. And Spo is the best. They’re better in the playoffs.

5. Philadelphia Sixers (46–36): Harden will tank this if he’s not traded. Embiid is awesome, but playoffs left a stink. Maxey is a star. Nurse will help.

4. New York Knicks (47–35): Brunson is a stud. You know what? Randle is too. And the pieces all fit. Thibs gets the most out of his team in the season.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (50–32): The two bigs play well in the regular season. Maybe Strus or Niang help spacing with the corner three. Will Spida be happy?

2. Milwaukee Bucks (52–30): Dame and Giannis will score at will. But they need to completely revamp their defensive system, and it won’t look pretty.

And now, your Eastern Conference top seed:

1. Boston Celtics (53–29): The best top four in basketball. They go only six deep. And I don’t trust the health of these players. Or Mazzulla.

Tatum’s cemented himself as a top 10 guy, maybe even top 5.

Overall: I wanted to add more wins to Boston and Milwaukee, but they just have too many important players with health questions for me to go there. Those records are not reflective on their talent levels, but they both have serious depth issues. The Knicks and Cavs will grind hard and put pressure on the top two. I do think that I might have undervalued Indiana and Orlando, but there’s only so many wins to go around. And Philadelphia is going to implode. You can just feel it. From Embiid’s struggles in the playoffs to Harden’s trade demands, their window has come and passed. Miami couldn’t care less about the regular season, but I do think they have some really good pieces that fit. And, of course, Spo.

So much on his shoulders.

As for the Knicks: Did you know the Knicks were third in offensive efficiency last year? Crazy, right? And here’s the thing: They didn’t shoot it very well. But what they did well are things that are sustainable: Three point attempts, low turnovers, offensive rebounding, second-chance points. And having Hart’s versatility for a whole year and replacing Toppin with DiVincenzo for corner threes is a huge upgrade. Brunson was a league-wide revelation, and there’s another level. Which brings us to Randle. If the two-time All-NBA guy shows up, these Knicks are dangerous. If it’s the other guy, his contract is more tradable. This is a make-or-break year for RJ, and I’m not very optimistic. I value Grimes more. They just gotta defend better. Last year, they were 19th in defensive efficiency, but when they moved Grimes in for Fournier in the starting lineup, they went 37–22 and were 12th in defense. They need to be top 10 to really be a powerhouse. Can they? I don’t know if they can with Randle, Barrett and Brunson logging so many minutes.

Here’s the grid again, if you’re into that sort of thing:

Here’s some ideas I wish I were braver to put into my official predictions: The Orlando Magic take a step beyond the play-in game and make the playoffs. Harden goes to the Clippers early in the season and they become serious contenders. Conversely, they don’t and they miss the playoffs. Bradley Beal is the Suns’ leading scorer. The Lakers win the Western Conference regular season.The Rockets make the play-in game. And in a weird but heartwarming one, Stony Brook alum and Staten Island native Mo Gueye gets a 10-day contract this season with the Toronto Raptors.

So how about the real season?

No, not this.

Western Conference: No team has answers for Jokic. The Suns don’t. The Warriors are too small. And AD came up small against him. I do think the Lakers are the team that will push them, but the Nuggets are in the middle of their championship window, and I think they’ll figure out their bench as the season progresses. I do like the Wolves and the Thunder being really tough outs in a way that gets people thinking that those two teams will meet in the Western Conference finals sooner than later. The Warriors play hard, play well, create magical moments, but there’s just too much Jokic or AD to overcome. But wouldn’t that be something if they could.

Eastern Conference: I do think that when the playoffs come around, it’s a two team race. Boston and Milwaukee are heads and shoulders above everyone else, despite what their records say. And if they’re healthy, it’ll be a battle for the ages. But if they’re nicked up, it gets really interesting. I don’t buy Cleveland or New York as championship teams. Cleveland’s size gets in the way, and with New York, there’s no button to press to get them to play harder. They are who they are, and they’ll both be outcoached. Thibs doesn’t adjust, and he doesn’t prep his team with many alternatives during the regular season. And that brings me to Miami. Do I bet against them? I think, in the playoffs, depth doesn’t matter as much. Jimmy and Bam stand up. But I think they’re a star player short. And Boston’s core six are exceptionally strong.

The Finals: The Celtics have enough firepower to give the Nuggets trouble, especially defensively on Murray, but again, who guards Jokic? He’s unanswerable. And I do think Michael Malone will have more answers than Joe Mazzulla.

Maybe this year, Jokic will actually hold the trophy.

And now for the individual honors:

Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo. Playing with Dame will unlock his rim-running and playmaking on the break. And he’ll have more defensive responsibility. Expect a season for the ages.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jrue Holiday. I think it’s time to recognize him and how much of a disrupter he’s been. Nobody attacks picks-and-rolls like him, and it makes the help easier.

Sixth Man of the Year: Immanuel Quickley. He’s still figuring it out, and yet, he’s become an excellent basketball player and the most invaluable bench player in the league.

Rookie of the Year: Wemby will have the most highlights, but I’m not sure if he’ll play enough to overcome Chet Holmgren’s impact on a playoff team. But he’ll be the better player.

Most Improved Player: Is Anthony Edwards available for this award? He takes a giant leap this season from All-NBA level to elite status.

Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault has been underappreciated at a national level for his work with the Thunder, so I’m giving him his due. That team is always prepared and improving.

MVP #3 for the Greek Freak.

And now, for my positionless but still kinda-positioned All-NBA teams:

First Team:

• Nikola Jokic
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Jayson Tatum
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Anthony Edwards.

The first three are no brainers. And yeah, you read those last two right. Shai’s gonna do it again to prove last year was no fluke.

Second Team:

• Joel Embiid
• Devin Booker
• Damian Lillard
• Stephen Curry
• Luka Doncic

I’m penalizing Doncic for not getting his team into the playoffs, and questions emerging about what type of team you can build around him.

Third Team:

• Domantas Sabonis
• Jimmy Butler
• Evan Mobley
• Tyrese Haliburton
• Jalen Brunson.

I think those two guards are exceptional, and I want them to get their due.

Just missed for whatever reasons you like (including not hitting the minimum games threshold): Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, Cade Cunningham, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Bradley Beal, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markinnen, Jaylen Brown and Julius Randle.

Would you even smoke a cigar for winning a meaningless tournament?

Here’s my In-season Tournament picks, and by the way, so much of this is predicated on scheduling luck. Do I pick the Warriors to beat Sacramento on the road? No. But if they played at home? Yes. But there’s no home-and-home. It’s just one game. And knowing that really influences who moves on. (I think this whole thing is stupid, just to be clear).

• EAST GROUP A: Cleveland (4–0)
• EAST GROUP B: Milwaukee (4–0), Knicks (3–1)
• EAST GROUP C: Boston (4–0)
• WEST GROUP A: Phoenix (4–0)
• WEST GROUP B: Denver (4-o)
• WEST GROUP C: Sacramento (3–1), Minnesota (3–1)

FINALS: Let’s say Milwaukee plays Phoenix and Milwaukee wins. But honestly, who cares?

He’ll care.

To close this up: I’m really excited for this season. I don’t think there’s a clear cut favorite. And this league is getting younger and deeper with more talent. There’s one team that’s sure to rise that none of us saw, and there’s sure to be one can’t miss team that misses. We just don’t know who they are yet. And that’s really exciting to witness.

But one thing is for sure: Winning in this league is hard enough, especially in the regular season. You need depth so the drop off isn’t extreme.

So, if nothing else, in basketball and in life, find strength in numbers. It worked for the Warriors for almost a decade, and it still holds true.