The 1230 Wins Breakdown: My 2022–2023 NBA Season Preview (Sorta)

In which your valiant yet idiotic writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team and then explains his reasoning in 123 characters or less.

These hips don’t lie.

In case you don’t know the deal: Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. It’s really in an effort to see if the Knicks will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. And for the Warriors and their newly-resumed dynasty, it’s a peek into what my expectations are for them this season.

I didn’t expect this.

Ah, yes, that newly-resumed dynasty. About last year, here’s what I wrote about the champs:

Last season was a clear distillation what they shouldn’t do when it comes to roster construction and on-court playing time. And it’s clear that they learned from it. Otto Porter and Bjelica are ideal fits considering what they’re being asked to do (and having the ability to do it). Iguodala, who is very limited at this point, is around to coach up Wiseman and the rookies on the court, who will only play when Steph and Draymond are resting. Klay will be back for over half the season, and I’m betting more on his shooting returning than his defense. Draymond is still the most disruptive defensive player in the league, and he’ll quarterback one of the best schemes. But like I said above, the biggest acquisition the Dubs made was this version of Jordan Poole. He didn’t exist last season. This version raises both the floor and ceiling of this team, and helps take the burden off Steph. He unlocks a new level.

Do I know my shit or what? All that was true, except for the Wiseman part. But, if I’m being completely honest, although I thought they were championship contenders (“The Dubs will be major problems for everyone by April”), I didn’t think they had enough. I thought their window had closed.

I’ve never been so happy to be wrong.

As for the Knickerbockers? Sheesh.

Thibs in midseason form. Or in preseason form. Hard to tell the difference.

7. New York Knicks (45–37). Never doubt a Thibs team. They play hard every night and turn every game into a struggle. This is a really deep team.

What a moron I am. Of course I should have doubted a Thibs team. Or, more directly, I should have doubted the most tunnel-visioned coach in the NBA. I should have doubted Thibs’ ability to change direction when it’s obvious to everyone else. I should have doubted his refusal to sit a veteran (Randle) when he’s destructive. I should not have underestimated his disdain for playing the kids because it makes him uncomfortable. Or his obstinance to play Randle and Obi together because he doesn’t believe in ever playing small. Thibs’ stubbornness and his one way of basketball isn’t gonna change, even when things are screaming for change. And that, among many other factors, killed the Knicks last season.

(The other things were Randle’s horrible play and the worst point guard rotation to the league. Plus, their defense changed. Last season, their opponents made two more threes a game on six more attempts, which is a big deal and speaks to missed assignments and rotations, and they made two more free throws, which points to more open lanes to the rim).

And yet, they still had the win expectation of a .500 team. So, shrug emoji.

Here’s what I got right.

The following were the Red Panda of predictions.

Five times my prediction landed between the team’s expected wins and real wins: Celtics, Magic, Bulls, Jazz and Thunder. Looking back, I don’t know what to learn from that quintet.

Also, this:

And as I go through this, here’s some stuff that was on my mind that I wasn’t brave enough to predict: The Cavs making a playoff run. The Timberwolves securing a top 6 seed. The Raptors making the playoffs.

I should have been braver.

And here’s what I got wrong.

My predications from last year, in gif form.

17 wins off for the Blazers (but Dame missed the year, so you can’t blame me for that). I was 16 wins off the Grizzlies (my bad, totally). I was 23 wins off for the Lakers (as was everyone else), 17 off the Pacers, 13 off the Cavs (but I did say they’d be a surprise team) and 11 off the Raptors (but then again, we all were).

And I had the Lakers and the Nets in the Finals.

How I felt this time last year.

So it was a banner year for me, if the banner said “MORON”.

However, there was something to learn from the losers, and it’s this.

I don’t need to tell you that we’re living in turbulent times. We’re all struggling to find things we can control. When I was looking at teams that underperformed, there were multiple reasons. But one giant thing stuck out for four of them, and it’s this:

If you come into the season with turmoil, you’re going to underperform.

Chuck, wake up. Let me repeat that, in case you missed it.

If you come into the season with turmoil, you’re going to underperform.

First, we need to define what “turmoil” is. It’s not just making a big trade or expecting a regression to the mean. It’s more like this team did something (or had something done to them) off-the-court that is bound to make a negative impact on their season. A self-inflicted wound.

For example, last season:

The Lakers season went up in chalk right after the Westbrook trade.

The Lakers came into 2021–22 in panic mode after an injury-riddled season that ended with a play-in game loss. The horror! They responded by trading their entire nicely-built roster for Russell Westbrook, a combustible personality jammed into the structured culture of LeBron James. Their styles of play clearly didn’t mesh, but everyone hoped they’d figure it out. Vegas had them for 52.5 wins. They ended with 33, a 19 win difference.

What a weird relationship these two have.

How about the Brooklyn Nets? Sure they had the “Big Three”, but Kyrie Irving’s resistance to get a vaccine shot dominated the headlines and turned their plans inside out. Plus, Harden once again came into camp out-of-shape, as he does. Vegas had them for 56.5 wins. They ended with 44, a 12.5 difference.

It didn’t end there.

Impressive?

The New Orleans Pelicans came into the season dealing with Zion Williamson’s self-imposed absence and the chaos that caused. Did he even want to be there? When would GM David Griffin be fired? Are the Bensons gonna sell the team or nah? Vegas had them for 39.5 wins, which factored in Zion playing at some point (he didn’t) and they ended up with 36. However, note that they were on a 31 win pace until they traded for CJ McCollum. File that away.

Mistakes were made.

The Philadelphia Sixers came into their season dealing with the whole Ben Simmons fiasco — from passing up the dunk in the playoffs to Doc Rivers’ criticism about his point guard play to Joel Embiid not backing him up. And, oh yeah, Simmons then boycotting camp, coming back to camp, getting kicked out of camp, and then missing the entire season. Just a whirlwind of mistakes. Vegas had them for 50.5 wins, which factored in that Simmons would play at some point and that Joel Embiid would get hurt. Both of those didn’t happen. They ended up with 51. But, and I think you know where I’m going with this, they were on a 48 win pace before the trade, which, okay, nevermind that one, because Embiid was otherworldly and played every day, except for a three-week gap in November. And then they got Harden for basically nothing — and went on a 56 win pace.

I guess my point is that it’s really difficult to meet expectations if you’re entering the season with a great deal of distress. You can flip your fortunes with a huge trade. But we don’t know that going in.

If you take those four teams, they underestimated by an average of 8.75 wins last season. I’m not saying that number is a rule, considering the wide variance, but there’s something there. And I think there will be trades this deadline to help right a sinking ship.

So let’s find those teams struggling to find harmony entering this season, and short them.

If only things were this happy in the Valley.

First off, the Phoenix Suns. Their owner was just outed as an awful person (in the worst kept secret in the NBA), their center didn’t want to re-sign with them and hasn’t talked to their coach all summer, their starting power forward asked for a trade, and they collapsed in a colossal way in the playoffs last season. Turmoil? I’d say so. Vegas has them at 52.5 wins. I think that’s their ceiling, and meeting it will take a superhuman effort.

It’s not you, Kyrie. It’s everyone else.

How about the Brooklyn Nets again? KD not only demanded a trade, he also called for the coach and GM be fired — and lost that staring contest. Neither Kyrie nor the Nets wanted this relationship to continue but here we are, and what are they getting with Ben Simmons? Turmoil? You bet.

Such a sad situation for everyone involved.

Now let’s talk about the Boston Celtics, a team with all the momentum heading into the summer, made a bunch of tremendous player acquisitions, but they enter the season with their coach suspended for a year, and probably never returning to the organization, and one of their star players pissed off he was named in a possible KD trade. And their starting game-changing center begins the season on the IL with another knee surgery and probably won’t be back until the new year. Team Turmoil over here, dressed in green.

We hear ya, LeBron.

And finally, the Lakers again. After last year’s debacle, they clearly wanted to trade Russell Westbrook but couldn’t. LeBron could have welcomed Russ at the Summer League but didn’t. And oh yeah, they traded for Russ’ mortal enemy in Pat Beverly. Plus, they put together yet another roster around LeBron that makes no sense. And they think this is gonna work? Turmoil is the new Showtime.

So as I’m looking at making predictions, I’m eyeballing these four teams and thinking, “There’s no way they’re gonna hit their Vegas overs. No way”. The trick is finding out what that number is. I don’t think it’s an average of 8.75 wins, like it was last season. And like I said, there’s a chance they can make a trade and reverse their fortune. But I’m definitely gonna short them.

As for the rest of the league:

This year, I’m expecting a couple of elite teams with wins in the 50s, and a healthy middle class of teams in the 40s. Last season, there were nine teams that cracked 50 wins (and one of them had 64). There were ten teams with at least 41 wins, which means that 19 of the 30 teams in the NBA were over .500 last season. That’s an exceptionally competitive league, but also out of the ordinary. Five teams had under 25 wins.

In 2020–21, we had seven teams above 50 wins and nine above 41, which was 16 out of 30 above .500. Five were below 25 wins. (Note that I extrapolated those numbers out from the prorated season, so they’re not completely insightful).

And in 2019–20, again in a prorated season, only three teams cracked 50 wins, only ten were above 41 wins, which puts 13 over .500. Nine were below 25 wins, with seven of them coming in the putrid Eastern Conference.

This is my brain right now. Don’t stop me.

So, even though the numbers from the past three seasons are, I guess, dirty, they are directional. So this season, we should expect an average of:

1. Six teams above 50 wins.
2. Sixteen teams above .500
3. Six teams below 25 wins

This year, I have:

1. Seven teams with over 50 wins. They’re the ones with championship material.
2. Eighteen teams with over 41 wins. There’s a very deep middle class.
3. Five teams below 25 wins. And honestly, I don’t think those teams are that bad, but the tank will be in early for Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.

Win Less for Wemban? Shit for Scoot?

OK, enough with the caveats. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season, and how the league’s 1230 wins will be allocated, with each team’s preview written in 123.0 characters or less, because I love numerical symmetry.

Let’s begin in the West and with those earning participation pins.

Sorry, Selena.

15. San Antonio Spurs (20–62). Pop wants to set his team up for success when he leaves. And that path begins with the #1 or #2 pick.

14. Utah Jazz (21–61). There’s actually some good players left on the roster until Danny trades them away to get the #1 or #2 pick.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (22–60). SGA will do everything he can to keep this team out of the cellar. And Presti will do anything to put them there.

12. Houston Rockets (23–59). Too young to do anything, but the potential for greatness is there. They’d look great with Scoot Henderson.

11. Sacramento Kings (39–43). They’re gonna be way improved. Fox/Sabonis PnR will be lethal. Keegan Murray is a perfect fit. They’re thisclose.

Here’s your Western Conference play-in teams.

If he’s healthy and engaged, watch out.

10. Los Angeles Lakers (40–42). Outside of LeBron, AD and PatBev, this roster makes no sense. And you can’t expect more than 120 games from the stars.

9. Portland Trailblazers (41–41). I think their roster is boring but makes sense. Dame’s itching to make up for lost time. Grant is a nice piece.

8. Phoenix Suns (44–38). CP3 is 37. Ayton is angry. Ownership is in flux. No way they repeat as a top 5 offense and defense. Expect disappointment.

7. New Orleans Pelicans (47–35). Not betting on Zion playing 82 games, but this deep roster can hold the fort. They can break top five.

And now, your Western Conference playoff teams.

We see you too, Ja.

6. Memphis Grizzlies (48–32). Missing Jaren through January is a HUGE loss. Ja does what he can, but the defense springs a leak without JJJ.

5. Dallas Mavericks (50–32). No Brunson is a huge loss, but this is Luka’s year. Wood can be a revelation or a disaster.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves (51–31). Love Rudy on this team. Even with a weaker bench, they have different looks. KAT will be a monster. Edwards too.

3. Golden State Warriors (53–29). They don’t care about the regular season. It’s all about getting Kuminga, Moody and Wiseman reps.

2. Denver Nuggets (55–27). Welcome back Jamal Murray and MPJ. And adding KCP is a huge addition. They’re better prepared and more complete.

And this year’s Western Conference top seed:

If I were a billionaire, I’d act like this too.

The Los Angeles Clippers (56–26). This is Kawhi and PG13’s last chance to get this right. And they will. This team is deep and talented.

Overall: Honestly, there’s not much difference between the top eight teams. You could flip them upside down and I wouldn’t be surprised. I just think the Clips’ roster is the best, and I believe in Tyronn Lue. Denver has their most complete roster in, well, ever. And although Jokic won’t win the MVP, he’ll play like one again and put up superhero numbers. Minnesota will be hellacious in the regular season, but I’m not sure about them in the playoffs because I don’t trust KAT’s legacy. Same for Dallas, although Luka is primed for a historic season and always comes up big. The Pelicans proved last season how frisky they can be without Zion, and the same goes for Memphis without Ja. And Phoenix? Look, there’s no way that mid-range offense finishes fifth in the league again. And everything went right for them last season, and everything went wrong in this offseason. They missed their window, but they’ll still be tough.

How does he keep getting better?

As for the Dubs: It’s another year for Klay to get his legs under him. I’d love to see him improve defensively. I’m not sure if his age will allow that. Steph’s gonna have another monster year. Draymond’s offense continues to decline, but oh man, his defense is still elite. I see Wiggins building off the playoff run to be a cornerstone for this team, alongside Steph and Poole. Moody and Wiseman will find their way this season into important minutes. Kuminga has the highest ceiling but the longest way to go, especially with JaMychal Green in front of him. Speaking of, I love his signing and Donte DiVincenzo. They’re the right type of bench Dubs. The front office is really clicking. And, it’s clear you don’t want to face this team in the playoffs.

One thing: As I’m writing this, we’re dealing with the repercussions of Draymond punching Jordan Poole during a preseason practice. My gut tells me that this isn’t the first time Dray’s done something stupid like this, and he and the team have had a ton of practice getting over dramas like this. So it is what it is. I don’t believe it’ll have much of an impact on the regular season or the playoffs, but I also think it cements this season as Draymond’s last with the team. I’ll leave it at that.

Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid.

PREDICTION is my predicted wins for them for this season. VEGAS ODDS is each team’s over/under for this season from DraftKings. EXPECTED WINS is what they were expected to win last season due to their point differential (which is a truer accounting of how they played). And OFFENSE RANK and DEFENSE RANK is how they compared to other teams last season on both sides of the court, so we can see what’s repeatable.

And now, the improved East:

Haliburton’s a gamer. Those who know, know.

15. Indiana Pacers (22–60). It’s the Tyrese Haliburton Show. And the final credits hopefully leads to the #1 or #2 pick. Indy, meet Tank Season.

14. Charlotte Hornets (29–53). LaMelo needs to run. No way Clifford lets him. This paper-thin roster is headed for a free fall.

13. Orlando Magic (33–49). I love the young roster they’re putting together. Paolo and Franz will cause problems. Does Isaac have anything left?

12. Detroit Pistons (34–48). Another bright young roster. Cade’s figured it out. He’ll really shine alongside Ivey.

11. Washington Wizards (36–46). They’ve got a good roster, but I don’t believe in Kristaps, and Beal hasn’t been a star in a couple of seasons.

And now, the play-in teams.

This’ll be a big year for Trae’s development.

10. Chicago Bulls (37–45). The Lonzo news is a killer. And there’s no way Demar repeats his career year. Good team, but the slide is unavoidable.

9. New York Knicks (43–39). They’ll be tight defensively, and Brunson will unlock some offense for them. RJ thrives. Grimes too. Randle rebounds.

8. Toronto Raptors (44–38). Barnes is a keeper. Siakam is a star. VanVleet is a killer. I just don’t think they repeat their magic.

7. Atlanta Hawks (45–37). Solid roster, and Dejuante adds much needed defense to the mix. I do think this is their ceiling. Their floor is deeper.

Here’s the contenders, each with a legit shot to make serious noise this season.

I’m all in on Team Jimmy. Love his game.

6. Brooklyn Nets (46–36). In a best case scenario, they’ve got the best roster that will win everything. No way that happens. Not even close.

5. Miami Heat (47–35). The machine that keeps on rolling. No PJ hurts. Expect another big year from Jimmy and Bam, and maybe an addition.

4. Boston Celtics (48–34). They had it all, and then, it’s been soiled. Brogdon was a nice addition. There’s too much turmoil here for a big season.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (49–33). I love this team. Spida is perfect for them. And Mobley takes on a national limelight. Maybe even Garland too.

2. Philadelphia 76ers (53–29). The Harden-Embiid PnR was unstoppable. Maxey blossomed. Melton and Tucker are exactly what this roster needed.

And now, your Eastern Conference top seed:

Just unstoppable.

The Milwaukee Bucks (54–28). Giannis, Jrue and Middleton along with a deep bench is dangerous. If Khris didn’t get hurt, they win it last year.

Overall: This conference is deeper than ever, but there are definitely levels. The Bucks, Sixers, Cavs, Celtics and Heat are championship contenders. The Nets should be too, but I think it’s more likely everyone is on the trading block by Christmas. The Hawks, Raptors and Knicks will be feisty, and not much separates them. And the Bulls should be there too, but Lonzo’s injury and Demar’s regression to the means gives me a bad feeling about them.

RJ’s on his way.

As for the Knicks: Expect a rebound. The Knicks will be tighter defensively. That’s what Thibs hangs his hat on, and he’s brilliant on that side of the court. Brunson makes a huge difference in many ways. One, he’s a really strong court general, and he’ll control the ball, and take it out of Randle’s hands on every possession, leaving Julius in a position to finish or attack. That’s good for him. RJ’s improvement was real, is real, and will continue. Grimes too. The fanbase will love Hartenstein’s passing. My only gripe is that even though the front office touts the youth movement, it means nothing if they let Thibs only play veterans. There’s no focus for the entire organization. There’s no cohesiveness. And that’s a huge problem. I don’t know what the plan is.

Here’s the grid, if you’re into that sort of thing:

PREDICTION is my predicted wins for them for this season. VEGAS ODDS is each team’s over/under for this season from DraftKings. EXPECTED WINS is what they were expected to win last season due to their point differential (which is a truer accounting of how they played). And OFFENSE RANK and DEFENSE RANK is how they compared to other teams last season on both sides of the court, so we can see what’s repeatable.

Here’s some ideas I wish I were braver to put into my official predictions: The Orlando Magic make the playoffs. Some playoff-dreaming team will see no path to a championship and decide to tank early. The Lakers wind up closer to 50 wins because AD stays healthy and finds his jump shot. Embiid wins the MVP. Portland free falls. And, the one that sticks most deeply in my gut is that the Nets start the season really strong and that momentum is all they need to win the championship.

So how about the real season?

Western Conference: Although the Dubs enter as the three seed, they’ll go in as the team to beat. And although the Nuggets and the Clips are better than ever, Steph and company will find a way. This might be his (and Klay and Draymond’s) final championship hurrah, and they’ll make it count.

Eastern Conference: Let me say this loud and clear, once again. The Nets are the best team in basketball by a mile. If Kyrie blends in. If KD stays healthy. If Simmons bounces back. If their bigs hold up. If Harris is also healthy. If they can defend a lick. And so on and so on. But as you see, there’s just too many ifs. And you don’t need all of them to work. But you do need some. I think it’s way more probably that it doesn’t happen for them, and there’s an even better chance that everyone is on the trade block by Christmas. I think the Sixers really improved themselves with Tucker and Melton, but I also don’t trust Harden in the playoffs. The Cavs are too young to make a postseason dent, and the Celtics will be running in mud. Honestly, the biggest battle for the Bucks will be the Heat. But the Bucks will just be too big and too tough, Giannis is a monster.

The Finals: As much as I’d want the Dubs to win another title, who guards Giannis? He’s unanswerable. I mean, so is Steph, but Jrue Holiday can provide some physicality problems. The Bucks take home their second championship in three seasons, ending another dynasty in the process.

It’s his world.

And now for the individual honors:

When you win the MVP, you can do stuff like this.

Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic. It’s his time. Expect a 30/10/10 season and improved defense. Without Brunson, there’s even more on his plate. And he’ll come into the season in better shape to handle it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert. We’re back to him winning this award, but we’ll really see his impact on a brand new team.

Sixth Man of the Year: It’s time for Jordan Poole to get his due.

Rookie of the Year: I think Paolo Banchero will be the best rookie, but I also see Keegan Murray playing a huge role on a playoff-contending team. So let’s give it to him for narrative’s sake.

Most Improved Player: Cade Cunningham had a better second half of his rookie season, and that flows into this season with an even better team. But I also don’t know if that’s really the definition of “Most Improved”. Second year guys improve naturally. So here’s a name: Andrew Wiggins, building off his superlative playoffs run to become the second most important Warrior this season.

Coach of the Year: Last year I picked Ume Idoka, and I was right. He just imploded in the offseason. I think JB Bickerstaff also was very deserving last year, but with a higher-profile roster, this will be his season to win it.

And now, for my All-NBA teams:

First Team: Embiid, Giannis, KAT, Steph and Luka. (I juggled KAT and Kawhi for the final forward spot, but I think Minnesota’s gonna be really good, and I think Kawhi’s gonna take a ton of games off to stay healthy.

Second Team: Jokic, Kawhi, Durant, Ja and Booker. (Jokic and Embiid are a coin flip, but I think it’s Joel’s year to really shine — and voters always find holes in a two-time NBA MVP’s game).

Third Team: Mobley, LeBron, Tatum, Butler and Dame. (Yes Evan Mobley, and it says so much of the league’s strength that Tatum and LeBron are on the third team and it’s justifiable.)

Just missed: Harden, Spida, Siakam, PG13, AD, Jaylen, Kyrie, Trae and Zion.

To close this up: I’m really excited for this season. I don’t think there’s a clear cut favorite. And this league is getting younger and deeper with more talent. There’s one team that’s sure to rise that none of us saw, and there’s sure to be one can’t miss team that misses. We just don’t know who they are yet. And that’s really exciting to witness.

But one thing is for sure: Winning in this league is hard enough as it is without having to deal with self-inflicted turmoil.

So, if nothing else, in basketball and in life, always always bet on harmony.