The 1230 Wins Breakdown: My 2021–2022 NBA Season Preview (Sorta)
In which your valiant yet idiotic writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team and then explains his reasoning in 123 characters or less.
Another year, another failed experiment.
Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. It’s really in an effort to see if the Knicks will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. ( ̶I̶t̶ ̶n̶e̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶s̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶n̶’̶t̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶.̶)
Let’s…wait, what?
About last year. Nobody expected the Knicks to be competent, much less a wildly successful basketball team that played to a projected 47 win season (with an expected 48 wins from their point differential). Hell, Vegas had them to win 25 games over an 82 game season. They went 22 over that. I thought they would pull in 21. I was barely confident they would put their uniforms on correctly.
Here’s what I wrote:
New York Knicks (21–51, Vegas predicts 22.5). Another season with no spacing around RJ and Mitch. Another season not knowing what they can do. (sigh)
I wasn’t totally off on that, considering they did have spacing issues. And Mitch got hurt early and we still don’t have a good handle on what he can do. So in the most literal sense, I was sorta right.
Did I mention that I had them ranked 14th out of 15th in the lowly Eastern Conference? Off by only ten spots.
Oh wait, there’s more:
As for the Knicks, hey, at least they didn’t do anything stupid in the offseason. However, I wish they put more shooters around RJ and Mitch. It’s so hard to judge players when they don’t have the space to operate. But Toppin should add something on offense, and Thibs will install defensive discipline, if nothing else. And hopefully they use their cap space to pick up assets this season. Why not?
Not a word about Julius Randle, who only wound up 2nd Team All-NBA. Oops. “Thibs will install defensive discipline” actually led to the Knicks being the fifth best defense in the league, so that was an understatement. Obi Toppin didn’t do much, although he was misplaced in the offense and the victim of Randle’s gloriousness, so that’s a wash. “I wish they put more shooters around RJ and Mitch” was also a bit of a misstep, considering the Knicks shot 39% from deep, ranking them fourth in the NBA. Although, to be fair, it’s not like Alec Burks, Derrick Rose or Reggie Bullock cause hard close-outs by their opponents. So I was right in theory, wrong in reality.
Truth be told, I missed on everything. But at least every single organism in the entire universe missed on the Knicks too.
So I’m in good company.
So that’s a nice uplifting story. Now let’s get into the darkness. This is the part of my essay where I try to find the few things I got right last season inside the huge pile of everything I got wrong. Pull up a chair and block out a couple of hours.
I undershot Memphis and New Orleans by 6 wins each, Charlotte by 7, Utah by 9 and Phoenix by 11.
I overshot Minnesota and Milwaukee by 6 wins each, Miami by 7, Boston by 8, Orlando by 9, Toronto by 13, and Houston by 16.
Hey, at least those numbers are for an 82 game schedule. (Checks notes: they only played 72 games last season, and I was that bad? Fuuuuuh).
OK, let me try to find a silver lining somewhere. How about how many win predictions I got right that landed inside the range of the actual wins of a team and their expected wins? Last year, I had zero. This past year? Four, right on the dot.
Boom?
Boom indeed. There’s a victory, right there. Found one.
I did have the Nets and the Lakers in the Finals, which is exactly what didn’t happen at all. And I did place NBA MVP Nikola Jokic on the second team All-NBA, so I’m clearly a wizard.
All sadness aside, I did predict Monty Williams as Coach of the Year. So take that, doomsayers. No wait, I got that wrong too. Thibs won it, but Monty was a close second. So, almost?
But enough about last season’s disaster. Let’s talk about this season’s disaster, and what I think will happen.
- Once again, deeper teams will most likely have a better chance at succeeding this year than top heavy ones. We’re not out of this pandemic yet, and there will be more breakthrough cases. If you have 10–11 players who can really play, your team will really be at an advantage.
- I’m expecting bigger things from the sophomore class this season, and that’s with the knowledge that they over-performed last year. With a training camp, they have a chance to reach another level. I’m looking at you, Anthony Edwards.
- Because of the new lottery rules, and because of the expanded playoff structure, less teams are trying to lose, which means there’s an expanded lower middle class of teams. But don’t worry. Houston, Oklahoma City and Orlando will take their beatings and happily ask for another.
- Home-court advantage will be back. Or, at least, it won’t be as trivial as it was last season. Usually, NBA teams win home games around 62% of the time. But that trend has been decreasing. Home teams have won below 60% of the games on their court for eight straight regular seasons. And last year, home teams won just 54% of the time — mostly because there weren’t any fans in the court for most of the season, or with limited attendance. So I expect home court advantage to go up across the board. (Note: The Jazz won at an 86% clip at home, and the Nuggets at 69%. They were both great teams last season, but playing in altitude is always an advantage for them).
Other things to keep in mind: In the five years before the last two seasons, which I’m gonna throw out because they are anomalies, an average of 7.8 teams put up 50 wins or more, with a high of 10 (in 2014–2015) and a low of 6 (2015–2016). In that 2015–2016 year, 19 out of the 30 teams were over .500, which diluted the wins. (We usually get a max of 18 teams over that mark).
This year, I have seven teams with 50 wins and 17 over .500. And I think the best teams in the league are in the East, which is so bizarre to write.
OK, enough with the caveats. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season, and how the league’s 1230 wins will be allocated, with each team’s preview written in 123.0 characters or less, because I love numerical symmetry.
Let’s begin with the big boys in the West and with those earning participation pins.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (18–54). This team is built to fail. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a floor raiser who will defy their limitations.
14. Houston Rockets (21–51). Time for the youth movement, and Green, Porter and Senguin will provide tons of thrills and teachable moments.
13. San Antonio Spurs (31–51). Defensively stout, but offensively harrowing. Pop will pull some magic, but this roster has very limited upside.
12. Sacramento Kings (33–49). A really fun backcourt, but big issues in their roster construction. Everything changes if they get Ben Simmons.
11. New Orleans Pelicans (34–48). Just bad mojo. Very questionable offseason moves. Zion’s hurt, and there’s fear he leaves ASAP. Dark clouds overhead.
Here’s your Western Conference play-in teams.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves (37–45). Team played much better after Finch was hired. Edwards grew, KAT is in a better place, and there’s potential here.
9. Memphis Grizzlies (40–42). There’s a lack of urgency with the front office, but the team competes like their hair’s on fire. Ja becomes a superstar.
8. Portland Trailblazers (44–38). A really solid starting five, and Nance Jr. is a great addition for Dame. Can Billups coach out all the defensive flaws?
7. Los Angeles Clippers (45–37). No Kawhi, no chance. But the roster is still dangerous, and PG13 is capable of having a huge year. And he’ll need to.
And now, your Western Conference playoff teams.
6. Denver Nuggets (46–36). Jokic is incredible. Porter Jr is a burgeoning star. But no Murray is no bueno. Backcourt is outmanned every night.
5. Dallas Mavericks (49–33). Luka is also incredible. But do we really trust Jason Kidd and Kristaps Porzingis to raise this team to new heights?
4. Golden State Warriors (50–32). This team didn’t have this Jordan Poole for most of last season. And this Jordan Poole is a game changer.
3. Phoenix Suns (54–28). Last season wasn’t a fluke. Booker broke out. The young supporting cast shined. Can Chris Paul still be Chris Paul?
2. Utah Jazz (55–27). Everything went right for them in regular season. Will luck turn? Mitchell primed for huge year. The clock is ticking.
And this year’s Western Conference top seed:
The Los Angeles Lakers (56–26). Russell Westbrook is the best floor-raiser in the NBA. He will drag this team to the top seed. Also, LeBron and AD.
Overall: The regular season and the postseason are truly two different things. Westbrook eliminates all the issues the Lakers had last season when LeBron and/or Davis were out. Russ turns every game into a life-or-death situation, which ensures the Lakers won’t be in the play-in game. However, there’s going to be huge spacing issues in the playoffs for them, and they doubled down on role players who are not 3-and-D, but rather, 3-or-D. This is a make-or-break year for the Jazz when it comes to the playoffs, and the new owner will want to make a splash sometime soon, which means a midseason trade could be in the offering. I believe in the Suns and Monty Williams. They might be better this year but with a worse record. The Nuggets and the Mavs are held back this season with injuries (Denver) and coaching (Dallas). But they have transcendent talents who will overcome those obstacles and place giant band-aids over gaping wounds. Also, I think Minnesota might really surprise this season. There’s always one team that overachieves by 10 or more wins, and they’ve got the talent to do that.
As for the Dubs: Last season was a clear distillation what they shouldn’t do when it comes to roster construction and on-court playing time. And it’s clear that they learned from it. Otto Porter and Bjelica are ideal fits considering what they’re being asked to do (and having the ability to do it). Iguodala, who is very limited at this point, is around to coach up Wiseman and the rookies on the court, who will only play when Steph and Draymond are resting. Klay will be back for over half the season, and I’m betting more on his shooting returning than his defense. Draymond is still the most disruptive defensive player in the league, and he’ll quarterback one of the best schemes. But like I said above, the biggest acquisition the Dubs made was this version of Jordan Poole. He didn’t exist last season. This version raises both the floor and ceiling of this team, and helps take the burden off Steph. He unlocks a new level.
Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid:
And now, the much better East:
15. Orlando Magic (20–62). Isaac and Suggs (yes) and Fultz (maybe) are keepers, and there’s a whole lot of contracts to be shipped out later.
14. Detroit Pistons (24–58). They have some really nice young pieces. This year is less about wins and more about Cunningham and his growth.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers (31–51). I’m bullish on them. Guards need to learn to play together, but ceiling is high. And bigs can all fit together too.
12. Washington Wizards (36–46). Really like how they restructured their roster. Much deeper than most teams. They’ll miss Russ dragging them to victory.
11. Toronto Raptors (37–45). Losing Lowry is a heart breaker, but they have really nice pieces to move forward. Van Vleet is a borderline star.
And now, the play-in teams.
10. Charlotte Hornets (39–43). LaMelo should reach another level this season. Team really meshed well together. Might be most fun team to watch.
9. Indiana Pacers (41–41). Roster is solid. Coach is exceptional. Sabonis and Brogdon are great. But this team is always injury-plagued.
8. Chicago Bulls (43–39). This can go really great or really bad. DeRozan will help them win games. LaVine is a stud. Not sure how they stop teams.
7. New York Knicks (45–37). Never doubt a Thibs team. They play hard every night and turn every game into a struggle. This is a really deep team.
Here’s the contenders, each with a legit shot to make serious noise this season.
6. Miami Heat (46–36). They have the talent of a 50-win team, but they tend to under-perform during the season. They’re dangerous when it matters.
5. Philadelphia Sixers (47–35). Too much Ben Simmons drama here, and that’s not even counting the annual Embiid injury. They’re great when together.
4. Boston Celtics (48–34). They were a hard-luck team last year so expect things to flip with a deeper team and a superstar in Tatum.
3. Atlanta Hawks (50–32). Count me in as a Trae Young believer, and the team around him are perfect complements. Collins is ready for the big stage.
2. Brooklyn Nets (53–29). Should be a 60+ win team, but can’t count on Kyrie, and if KD or Harden get hurt, they’re just better than average.?
And now, your Eastern Conference top seed:
The Milwaukee Bucks (57–25). Defending champs figured it out in the Finals, and they created a three-headed unstoppable monster.
Overall: Let me say this loud and clear. The Nets are the best team in basketball by a mile. At least, they should be. But I don’t trust Kyrie to take care of himself off-the-court, even if he’s the “added nice piece”. It’s all about KD and Harden, and during the regular season, they’ll coast. I’m excited to see the Bucks unleash their style during the season on teams not ready to compete against it. The Sixers should form a big three, but that ship has sailed. That being said, Atlanta is ready for the spotlight. Boston, the Knicks and Chicago are all in the same boat of teams that could jump up if and when someone falls out. And Miami? Despite Jimmy Butler’s over-competitiveness, they tend to treat the regular season as a training camp for the postseason. But if they get hot from deep, they’re unstoppable.
As for the Knicks: I love what they did in the off-season. Kemba Walker is such a huge upgrade over Elfrid Payton, and Fournier brings a much needed creative dimension to replace Bullock’s ground-bound game. To be fair, they are both defensive downgrades, but Thibodeau’s defense is always about the unit instead of the individuals, so I trust him to piece that together. And having Kemba, Fournier and Rose as distributors and playmakers takes such a huge grind off of Randle, and clearly expands the offense. I expect Randle to bring even more to the table, like an ability as a catch-and-shoot threat. I believe RJ will become an even better finisher at the rim. He keeps adding layers to his game, and that’s the one that needs more work. I’m so excited for this team. But I also want to make this clear: They can be a better team, and yet have a worse record, or gain a worse seed. The East is deeper this season, so it’s imperative not to judge this team on black-and-white results.
Here’s the grid, if you’re into that sort of thing:
So how about the real season?
Western Conference: There’s going to be huge pressure on the Jazz to deliver this postseason — as in Finals or bust. The same can be said for the Lakers, who should be the prohibitive favorites, but can we trust LeBron and AD to be healthy (and for Russ not to add spacing problems)? The Dubs will be major problems for everyone by April. And you just don’t want to play Luka in a series. I think the Lakers come out alive, but I don’t want to bet on it. They have very little room for error.
Eastern Conference: Simply, this is all heading to a rematch between the Nets and the Bucks. Remember, the Nets were an inch away from defeating the Bucks, and that’s without Kyrie and with Harden playing with one leg. Assume two of the three are healthy. But also keep in mind that the Bucks really figured themselves out in the Finals, and the Nets don’t have anyone to stop Giannis when he plays like that. All that being said, the Nets just have too much firepower. And they put really nice pieces around their big three.
The Finals: KD cements his legacy as the best player alive with his third title. And Harden takes home Finals MVP with a career-defining performance (yes, you read that right). The pressure will be off him to deliver. And he’ll do just that.
And now for the individual honors:
Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic. It’s his time. Can we expect a 30/10/10 season? Maybe not the rebounds, but everything else is certainly in play. There’s a chance the Mavs will be a dumpster fire, but his brilliance will lift them above the fray. He’s a stud, and winning one of these is eventual.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jrue Holiday. This award is a lot about narrative, and Jrue started building his story in the final and during the Olympics. He’s the best perimeter defender in the world.
Sixth Man of the Year: Let’s say Jordan Crawford, just because he’ll get his shots up and, let’s face it, he’s a much better player now than he ever was.
Rookie of the Year: This’ll come down between Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green. Neither team will win much, but I think Green will be the center of his team’s offense, and he’ll put up numbers. Cunningham will provide leadership and maturity, and you can’t measure those things. So Green.
Most Improved Player: Jordan Poole. It started last year. It’ll be on display this season. Also, Darius Garland begins to live up to the hype.
Coach of the Year: Ume Idoka. The first-year coach of the Celtics rides a reversal of luck (and his impeccable lineage) to lead his team to a nice bump in wins. (Also, it’ll be a fitting tribute to his late agent Erin Cowan, who was truly a great guy, fun collaborator, basketball savant and is sorely missed). Chris Finch will also be heard from.
All-NBA First Team: Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry. Yes, Jayson Tatum. Just you watch.
All-NBA Second Team: Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Trae Young and Damian Lillard. Yes, Trae Young. Just you watch that too.
All-NBA Third Team: Paul George, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Julius Randle and Donovan Mitchell.
Just missed: Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jrue Holiday, Michael Porter Jr, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton, Zach LaVine, Rudy Gobert and Ja Morant.
And as I go through this, here’s some stuff that was on my mind that I wasn’t brave enough to predict: The Cavs making a playoff run. The Timberwolves securing a top 6 seed. Ben Simmons not being traded and competing as if the playoffs didn’t happen. Karl-Anthony Towns being a legit MVP candidate. The Lakers being healthy through the regular season and topping 60 wins. The Raptors making the playoffs. And everything falling apart for the Warriors, which is a very real thing.
I’m just so happy for this sense of almost normalcy. 82 game season. Full crowds. Home court advantage. A growing group of young talented players. Superstar teams. Tons of drama. And an honest sense that anything can happen.
The one thing we can count on is this: Whatever I wrote here will be an absolute travesty by June 2022. It’s an NBA tradition.
Steve Tornello
Sr. Director, Creative @salesforce / Sportswriter / Screenwriter / Writer / HS Basketball Coach / Husband / Dad. My thoughts are mine alone.
STEVE TORNELLO FOLLOWS
In which your valiant writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team and then explains his reasoning in 108 characters or less.
A fair representation of what you’re about to read.
So this probably isn’t gonna work.
Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. It’s really in an effort to see if the Knicks will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. (It never happens, and it didn’t last year).
But this year isn’t like any other year. For example, each NBA team is slated to play 72 games this season instead of 82, which brings the total to 1080. Weird, right? So weird.
Oh yeah, the pandemic. That too. In fact, there’s no guarantee that each team will play those 72 games. Some might play less, and that’s okay. And the havoc the virus will play on the active rosters each night is impossible to comprehend. Knowing who the Hornets are suiting up each night is truly the least of our problems, but it makes predicting this season even harder than ever.
Me looking at last season’s predictions one year later
This is usually the part of my essay where I go over what I got right last season and what I got wrong, but it was too much of a cluster to really understand it. I overshot the Warriors win total by 23. And the Jazz didn’t win the West. And the Mavericks and Thunder were way better than I thought they’d be.
When I put the numbers together, I tried to find how many win predictions I got right that landed inside the range of the actual wins of a team and their expected wins. I had zero. That’s never happened. Last year, I had four, as did Vegas. And before you discount me, understand that last season, Vegas only had one of their odds within the wins range (Charlotte had 25 actual wins, 18 expected wins, and Vegas had them at over/under 20 wins).Of course, the schedules weren’t exactly fair due to the bubble and probably shifted the results. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself.
But I did think the Heat would be really good, so I had that going for me.
So that’s…something?
But enough about last season’s disaster. Let’s talk about this season’s disaster, and what I think will happen.
- Deeper teams will most likely have a better chance at succeeding this year than top-heavy ones. And I’m not talking about good depth. Instead, the teams that have the most legit NBA players who can provide average-at-worst minutes will have an advantage over teams stacked with roster fillers.
- Speaking of roster fillers, this rookie class won’t be prepared to play because of a lack of the preseason (and because they just aren’t very good to begin with).
- Teams that didn’t play in the bubble have unprecedented rust to shake off.
- Those that did play in the bubble might not have had enough recovery time.
- We have no idea what the vaccines and herd immunity will look like and how that affects these teams.
- We don’t know how those who have already had Covid-19 will perform this season.
- And we don’t know how this new travel philosophy of playing back-to-backs against the same team in the same arena will affect home court advantage.
- Speaking of, will playing in empty, cavernous arenas affect shooting and how teams game plan?
Depiction of every NBA roster at some point this season.
Other things to keep in mind: 44 wins this season equates to 50 wins in an 82 game season. Last year, 10 teams hit that number. Over the five years before that, an average of 7.8 teams put up 50 wins or more, with a high of 10 (in 2014–2015) and a low of 6 (2015–2016). In that 2015–2016 year, 19 out of the 30 teams were over .500, which diluted the wins. (We usually get a max of 18 teams over that mark).
This year, I have eight teams with 44 wins (or 50 in a normal season) and 17 over .500. In retrospect, I think the wins will be even more spread out than what I’m presenting, just due to the volatile nature of rosters and scheduling and the world. But I’m sticking with my original allocations.
OK, enough with the caveats. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season with each team’s preview written in 108 characters or less instead of 123, because if a shortened schedule makes it tough on the players, it might as well be tough on me.
Let’s begin with the big boys in the West and with those earning participation pins.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (22–50). Maybe the best last place Conference team ever. Good talent to build. But the goal is “Trade Away for Cade”.
De’Aaron Fox is fun.
14. Sacramento Kings (27–45). A playoff contender in the East but too many holes in the West. Fox will shine. Haliburton best rookie?
13. San Antonio Spurs (28–44). The end of an era. The time to rebuild is now. DeRozan and LaMarcus could be elsewhere soon.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (29–43). Deep roster, but they might have a bottom 5 defense. KAT needs a big season. Edwards pick could be a killer.
“I want out”.
11. Houston Rockets (31–41). Harden makes them a playoff team, but his days are numbered, and too many question marks remain.
Here’s your Western Conference play-in teams. They’re a really solid quartet.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (32–40). Could be way better but with less wins. Ja is a stud. JJ too. And they’ve got the right pieces around them.
If Stan Van Gundy can get Zion to do more of this? Trouble.
9. New Orleans Pelicans (37–35). I believe in SVG coaching Zion, Ingram, Zo and company to new heights. But defense will still be a problem.
8. Golden State Warriors (39–33). A much deeper team than last year. Steph is great. Draymond too. And they’ll be the fastest team in the NBA.
7. Phoenix Suns (40–32). They build from the bubble. CP3 helps them mature. Booker has another breakout. And they’re well coached.
And now, your Western Conference playoff teams.
It’s my favorite time of the day too.
6. Portland Trailblazers (41–31). Dame’s the best PG in the world. Nurkic’s great too, and his passing unlocks them. And now, they can defend.
Nah, both of you, together, are great.
5. Denver Nuggets (42–30). Jokic and Murray are elite. Season hinges on Porter’s development. If he can be a #3, trend upwards.
4. Utah Jazz (43–29). Mitchell keeps ascending. Conley is more comfortable. They’re just really good. And Gobert anchors it all.
3. Dallas Mavericks (45–27). Luka Luka Luka Luka Luka. And now with a roster that makes more sense around him. Richardson really fits.
2. Los Angeles Clippers (46–26). Ibaka is everything this team needs. Lue offers a new voice. They have to play with urgency. Will they?
And this year’s Western Conference top seed:
I mean, seriously.
The Los Angeles Lakers (47–25). LeBron and AD rest for playoffs, but they have enough to secure the top seed. They had a nice offseason.
Overall: Those top ten teams are really good, and the differences are truly going to come from whomever is available to play on a night to night basis. The Lakers are the best team, for sure, and if the regular season meant something, they’d play LeBron and AD more and they’d have more wins than I listed. But these 72 games don’t mean a thing to them. Same for Kawhi and Paul George. The Clips are also cut above, and Ibaka and Batum provides them with more answers. I love Luka, and think he’s gonna win the MVP this season, and if Kristaps plays, then the Mavs are the most dangerous team in the league. I just don’t think the big man is gonna stay healthy, which makes me think they keep him wrapped in cellophane until the playoffs. Denver and Utah are thisclose. And as much as Denver’s run in the bubble was inspiring, remember they were a Conley missed three at the buzzer from being a first-round exit against a Jazz team without Bogdanovic. Dame’s gonna be electric and play with his usual urgency this season. And I think CP3 and Booker will be the best backcourt in the league.
Obligatory Steph gif.
As for the Dubs: I’m really excited about the Warriors this season due to how different they’ll be. They’re gonna be lethal on the break and especially on the secondary break, where Steph pulls up from three or they lob it up to a rim-running Wiseman. They’ve got a deep bench. Wiggins and Oubre are long and quick and athletic and I feel like the Dubs will be good defensively. The pieces are there for them to get stops and get out in transition. I just don’t think they’ll have enough shooting to be great, and I can’t believe I wrote that about a team with Steph Curry, but it’s true. They’re really going to miss Klay. We’re all gonna miss Klay.
Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid:
And now, the improving East, beginning with the worst of the worst:
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (19–53). What are they doing here? Not really sure. Guards don’t fit. Forwards don’t fit. Not sure how they restart.
Look how clogged the lane is. RJ knows.
14. New York Knicks (21–51, Vegas predicts 22.5). Another season with no spacing around RJ and Mitch. Another season not knowing what they can do. (sigh)
13. Detroit Pistons (23–49). Worst offseason of any team. They seem so directionless. But Blake and Rose will pull out a couple of games.
12. Charlotte Hornets (26–46). LeMelo will be fun to watch. Hayward will elevate their play. But the future isn’t necessarily bright.
11. Chicago Bulls (28–44). After the Boylan disaster, let’s see if Donovan can unlock something more from all their young talent.
And now, the play-in teams.
Magic basketball. It’s…something.
10. Orlando Magic (30–42). I’m just a couple of characters in and I’m already bored of what I have to say about this team.
9. Washington Wizards (34–38). I’m not the biggest Russ fan but they have shooters around him and he’s a culture changer. They’ll be tough.
8. Indiana Pacers (37–35). I don’t think they’ve gotten better. TJ Warren has a chance to be an All-Star. Sabonis is great. The rest?
Tre is fun too. So much fun in this league.
7. Atlanta Hawks (38–34). Great pickups. Maybe the most explosive team in the NBA. If they can be average on D? That’s a big if.
Here’s the contenders, each with a legit shot to make serious noise this season.
6. Toronto Raptors (40–32). They lost a ton in the front court, but Nurse will find a way. They’re just not the same threat anymore.
Who’s a big dog now? You’re a big dog now, Jayson.
5. Boston Celtics (44–28). Losing Hayward hurts their ball movement. No Kemba for a while hurts their explosion. But they got Jayson.
4. Philadelphia Sixers (45–27). Finally, they’ve got shooters around Ben and Embiid. Now let’s see what they can do together. Buckle up.
This Bam block is still incredible.
3. Miami Heat (47–25). The bubble was no joke. Bam and Jimmy are studs. Herro and Duncan are killers. They know who they are.
2. Brooklyn Nets (48–24). Just too much talent. KD will be KD again. And they have pieces. Can they survive it when Kyrie flakes?
And now, your Eastern Conference top seed:
How do you stop that? (Spoiler: You can’t)
The Milwaukee Bucks (52–20). Again, the best regular season team. Giannis, Jrue and Kris will play well together. They need variety.
Overall: The Bucks’ issue isn’t the regular season. It’s that they don’t use the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. Will Bud work on different ways to defend? Will they work on different ways to attack a zone? If they don’t, they’re just fodder for Miami again. The Heat figured things out in the bubble, and they’re only gonna get better, which is scary. Brooklyn is gonna be a problem for everyone. And honestly, they might be the team that makes it out of the East. This is a make-or-break year for the Sixers, and I’m excited to see which one it is. Hell, they might decide by midseason and trade for James Harden.
Speaking of The Beard, yes, I can see him on the Sixers for Ben Simmons. I can also see KD approving a trade of Kyrie for James too. And I can also see Herro and Duncan Robinson and others heading to Houston.
But hear me out. What if the Toronto Raptors traded Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell and draft picks for James Harden? Van Vleet, Siakam and Anunoby are three excellent defenders to put around Harden. Nick Nurse would script something fun offensively around a Harden and Aron Baynes pick-and-roll (Baynes is one of the best pick setters in the league). He brings star power to a big city with a lively nightlife. It just makes sense. And here’s the kicker: Couldn’t you see Masai Ujiri doing that? Right! Wouldn’t that make Toronto a serious contender in an instant? Yes. Totally.
Jus’ sayin’.
Get used to this, Knicks fans.
As for the Knicks, hey, at least they didn’t do anything stupid in the offseason. However, I wish they put more shooters around RJ and Mitch. It’s so hard to judge players when they don’t have the space to operate. But Toppin should add something on offense, and Thibs will install defensive discipline, if nothing else. And hopefully they use their cap space to pick up assets this season. Why not?
Here’s the grid, if you’re into that sort of thing:
So how about the real season?
Western Conference: LeBron and AD proved to be unbeatable last season in the bubble, and I don’t think anyone has the goods to take them down this season — especially AD. He’s such a matchup problem for everyone. Ibaka gets the Clippers closer, but not quite. This is the season where the Mavs make a run, maybe to the Conference finals. Next year might be their year.
Eastern Conference: I want to say that this is the postseason that the Bucks put it together. I really want to say that. I don’t think this is it. They’re just not deep enough. They’ll have five seasons after this one to figure it out. This’ll come down to the Nets and the Heat, and I don’t think the Heat has an answer for KD. I mean, who does?
Get used to this, Lakers fans.
The Finals: It’s title #6 for LeBron, but this time, it’s AD who shines the brightest for the Lakers. The Nets give them a run, maybe six games, but they might need another season after this one to fine tune things around the edges.
And now for the individual honors:
Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic. He’s a monster, and it’s all coming together for him. There’s just no stopping him, and the narrative is there for him to take this Mavs team to the upper echelons of the Western Conference — especially if Kristaps doesn’t play much.
It’s crazy Embiid can do stuff like this when he wants to.
Defensive Player of the Year: Joel Embiid. He hasn’t won one yet. That’ll change this season. Doc will get it out of him.
Sixth Man of the Year: Here’s a curveball. Davis Bertans will win this. He’s one of the best shooters in the world, and he’ll be desperately needed to create space for Russell Westbrook.
Rookie of the Year: Obi Toppin will probably play the most, be most NBA ready at the start and put up the most counting numbers, but as LaMelo figures out the league, his magical passing highlights will make this a close race.
I wanted Jamal’s 360 spin layup, but the gifs of that are terrible.
Most Improved Player: This is a weird category, considering how much Jamal Murray shocked us in the playoffs. But I feel like he can hit even another level.
Coach of the Year: Monty Williams. The Suns’ improvement this season continues from their bubble run, and he (and CP3) should get the credit.
All-NBA First Team: Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard.
All-NBA Second Team: Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell and Stephen Curry.
All-NBA Third Team: Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker and Joel Embiid.
Just missed: Paul George, Chris Paul, Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray, Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
One last thing: Did you see the names on the “Just missed” list? The talent level in this league is insane. And the trading deadline can see some major pieces change places and really disrupt everything I wrote before this.
Either way, this will be a season unlike any other, with decimated rosters and empty arenas and unique storylines and protests and so many other things you just can’t imagine. It’ll see superstars taking even bigger stands both on and off the court, and new stars elevating their games and finding their voices. There will be surprises. There will be disappointments. And, as the season goes on, we hope we see some normalcy. Please, let there be normalcy.
Which means that anyone stupid enough to post predictions about this season deserves the scorn they receive afterwards.
Are you listening, Steve? Steve?
Me reading this entire article again in July 2021.
Steve Tornello
Sr. Director, Creative @salesforce / Sportswriter / Screenwriter / Writer / HS Basketball Coach / Husband / Dad. My thoughts are mine alone.
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