The 1080 Wins Breakdown: My 2020–2021 NBA Season Preview (Sorta)
In which your valiant writer once again attempts to predict the final records of every single team and then explains his reasoning in 108 characters or less.
So this probably isn’t gonna work.
Each year, I do this little math game where I use the SUM function in a spreadsheet to map out how the 1230 total wins in an NBA season will be distributed between the 30 teams. It’s really in an effort to see if the Knicks will have enough bounty to reach the “over” in their Vegas odds. (It never happens, and it didn’t last year).
But this year isn’t like any other year. For example, each NBA team is slated to play 72 games this season instead of 82, which brings the total to 1080. Weird, right? So weird.
Oh yeah, the pandemic. That too. In fact, there’s no guarantee that each team will play those 72 games. Some might play less, and that’s okay. And the havoc the virus will play on the active rosters each night is impossible to comprehend. Knowing who the Hornets are suiting up each night is truly the least of our problems, but it makes predicting this season even harder than ever.
This is usually the part of my essay where I go over what I got right last season and what I got wrong, but it was too much of a cluster to really understand it. I overshot the Warriors win total by 23. And the Jazz didn’t win the West. And the Mavericks and Thunder were way better than I thought they’d be.
When I put the numbers together, I tried to find how many win predictions I got right that landed inside the range of the actual wins of a team and their expected wins. I had zero. That’s never happened. Last year, I had four, as did Vegas. And before you discount me, understand that last season, Vegas only had one of their odds within the wins range (Charlotte had 25 actual wins, 18 expected wins, and Vegas had them at over/under 20 wins).Of course, the schedules weren’t exactly fair due to the bubble and probably shifted the results. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself.
But I did think the Heat would be really good, so I had that going for me.
So that’s…something?
But enough about last season’s disaster. Let’s talk about this season’s disaster, and what I think will happen.
- Deeper teams will most likely have a better chance at succeeding this year than top-heavy ones. And I’m not talking about good depth. Instead, the teams that have the most legit NBA players who can provide average-at-worst minutes will have an advantage over teams stacked with roster fillers.
- Speaking of roster fillers, this rookie class won’t be prepared to play because of a lack of the preseason (and because they just aren’t very good to begin with).
- Teams that didn’t play in the bubble have unprecedented rust to shake off.
- Those that did play in the bubble might not have had enough recovery time.
- We have no idea what the vaccines and herd immunity will look like and how that affects these teams.
- We don’t know how those who have already had Covid-19 will perform this season.
- And we don’t know how this new travel philosophy of playing back-to-backs against the same team in the same arena will affect home court advantage.
- Speaking of, will playing in empty, cavernous arenas affect shooting and how teams game plan?
Other things to keep in mind: 44 wins this season equates to 50 wins in an 82 game season. Last year, 10 teams hit that number. Over the five years before that, an average of 7.8 teams put up 50 wins or more, with a high of 10 (in 2014–2015) and a low of 6 (2015–2016). In that 2015–2016 year, 19 out of the 30 teams were over .500, which diluted the wins. (We usually get a max of 18 teams over that mark).
This year, I have eight teams with 44 wins (or 50 in a normal season) and 17 over .500. In retrospect, I think the wins will be even more spread out than what I’m presenting, just due to the volatile nature of rosters and scheduling and the world. But I’m sticking with my original allocations.
OK, enough with the caveats. Here’s my predictions for the upcoming NBA season with each team’s preview written in 108 characters or less instead of 123, because if a shortened schedule makes it tough on the players, it might as well be tough on me.
Let’s begin with the big boys in the West and with those earning participation pins.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (22–50). Maybe the best last place Conference team ever. Good talent to build. But the goal is “Trade Away for Cade”.
14. Sacramento Kings (27–45). A playoff contender in the East but too many holes in the West. Fox will shine. Haliburton best rookie?
13. San Antonio Spurs (28–44). The end of an era. The time to rebuild is now. DeRozan and LaMarcus could be elsewhere soon.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (29–43). Deep roster, but they might have a bottom 5 defense. KAT needs a big season. Edwards pick could be a killer.
11. Houston Rockets (31–41). Harden makes them a playoff team, but his days are numbered, and too many question marks remain.
Here’s your Western Conference play-in teams. They’re a really solid quartet.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (32–40). Could be way better but with less wins. Ja is a stud. JJ too. And they’ve got the right pieces around them.
9. New Orleans Pelicans (37–35). I believe in SVG coaching Zion, Ingram, Zo and company to new heights. But defense will still be a problem.
8. Golden State Warriors (39–33). A much deeper team than last year. Steph is great. Draymond too. And they’ll be the fastest team in the NBA.
7. Phoenix Suns (40–32). They build from the bubble. CP3 helps them mature. Booker has another breakout. And they’re well coached.
And now, your Western Conference playoff teams.
6. Portland Trailblazers (41–31). Dame’s the best PG in the world. Nurkic’s great too, and his passing unlocks them. And now, they can defend.
5. Denver Nuggets (42–30). Jokic and Murray are elite. Season hinges on Porter’s development. If he can be a #3, trend upwards.
4. Utah Jazz (43–29). Mitchell keeps ascending. Conley is more comfortable. They’re just really good. And Gobert anchors it all.
3. Dallas Mavericks (45–27). Luka Luka Luka Luka Luka. And now with a roster that makes more sense around him. Richardson really fits.
2. Los Angeles Clippers (46–26). Ibaka is everything this team needs. Lue offers a new voice. They have to play with urgency. Will they?
And this year’s Western Conference top seed:
The Los Angeles Lakers (47–25). LeBron and AD rest for playoffs, but they have enough to secure the top seed. They had a nice offseason.
Overall: Those top ten teams are really good, and the differences are truly going to come from whomever is available to play on a night to night basis. The Lakers are the best team, for sure, and if the regular season meant something, they’d play LeBron and AD more and they’d have more wins than I listed. But these 72 games don’t mean a thing to them. Same for Kawhi and Paul George. The Clips are also cut above, and Ibaka and Batum provides them with more answers. I love Luka, and think he’s gonna win the MVP this season, and if Kristaps plays, then the Mavs are the most dangerous team in the league. I just don’t think the big man is gonna stay healthy, which makes me think they keep him wrapped in cellophane until the playoffs. Denver and Utah are thisclose. And as much as Denver’s run in the bubble was inspiring, remember they were a Conley missed three at the buzzer from being a first-round exit against a Jazz team without Bogdanovic. Dame’s gonna be electric and play with his usual urgency this season. And I think CP3 and Booker will be the best backcourt in the league.
As for the Dubs: I’m really excited about the Warriors this season due to how different they’ll be. They’re gonna be lethal on the break and especially on the secondary break, where Steph pulls up from three or they lob it up to a rim-running Wiseman. They’ve got a deep bench. Wiggins and Oubre are long and quick and athletic and I feel like the Dubs will be good defensively. The pieces are there for them to get stops and get out in transition. I just don’t think they’ll have enough shooting to be great, and I can’t believe I wrote that about a team with Steph Curry, but it’s true. They’re really going to miss Klay. We’re all gonna miss Klay.
Here’s how the Western Conference looks in a grid:
And now, the improving East, beginning with the worst of the worst:
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (19–53). What are they doing here? Not really sure. Guards don’t fit. Forwards don’t fit. Not sure how they restart.
14. New York Knicks (21–51, Vegas predicts 22.5). Another season with no spacing around RJ and Mitch. Another season not knowing what they can do. (sigh)
13. Detroit Pistons (23–49). Worst offseason of any team. They seem so directionless. But Blake and Rose will pull out a couple of games.
12. Charlotte Hornets (26–46). LeMelo will be fun to watch. Hayward will elevate their play. But the future isn’t necessarily bright.
11. Chicago Bulls (28–44). After the Boylan disaster, let’s see if Donovan can unlock something more from all their young talent.
And now, the play-in teams.
10. Orlando Magic (30–42). I’m just a couple of characters in and I’m already bored of what I have to say about this team.
9. Washington Wizards (34–38). I’m not the biggest Russ fan but they have shooters around him and he’s a culture changer. They’ll be tough.
8. Indiana Pacers (37–35). I don’t think they’ve gotten better. TJ Warren has a chance to be an All-Star. Sabonis is great. The rest?
7. Atlanta Hawks (38–34). Great pickups. Maybe the most explosive team in the NBA. If they can be average on D? That’s a big if.
Here’s the contenders, each with a legit shot to make serious noise this season.
6. Toronto Raptors (40–32). They lost a ton in the front court, but Nurse will find a way. They’re just not the same threat anymore.
5. Boston Celtics (44–28). Losing Hayward hurts their ball movement. No Kemba for a while hurts their explosion. But they got Jayson.
4. Philadelphia Sixers (45–27). Finally, they’ve got shooters around Ben and Embiid. Now let’s see what they can do together. Buckle up.
3. Miami Heat (47–25). The bubble was no joke. Bam and Jimmy are studs. Herro and Duncan are killers. They know who they are.
2. Brooklyn Nets (48–24). Just too much talent. KD will be KD again. And they have pieces. Can they survive it when Kyrie flakes?
And now, your Eastern Conference top seed:
The Milwaukee Bucks (52–20). Again, the best regular season team. Giannis, Jrue and Kris will play well together. They need variety.
Overall: The Bucks’ issue isn’t the regular season. It’s that they don’t use the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. Will Bud work on different ways to defend? Will they work on different ways to attack a zone? If they don’t, they’re just fodder for Miami again. The Heat figured things out in the bubble, and they’re only gonna get better, which is scary. Brooklyn is gonna be a problem for everyone. And honestly, they might be the team that makes it out of the East. This is a make-or-break year for the Sixers, and I’m excited to see which one it is. Hell, they might decide by midseason and trade for James Harden.
Speaking of The Beard, yes, I can see him on the Sixers for Ben Simmons. I can also see KD approving a trade of Kyrie for James too. And I can also see Herro and Duncan Robinson and others heading to Houston.
But hear me out. What if the Toronto Raptors traded Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell and draft picks for James Harden? Van Vleet, Siakam and Anunoby are three excellent defenders to put around Harden. Nick Nurse would script something fun offensively around a Harden and Aron Baynes pick-and-roll (Baynes is one of the best pick setters in the league). He brings star power to a big city with a lively nightlife. It just makes sense. And here’s the kicker: Couldn’t you see Masai Ujiri doing that? Right! Wouldn’t that make Toronto a serious contender in an instant? Yes. Totally.
Jus’ sayin’.
As for the Knicks, hey, at least they didn’t do anything stupid in the offseason. However, I wish they put more shooters around RJ and Mitch. It’s so hard to judge players when they don’t have the space to operate. But Toppin should add something on offense, and Thibs will install defensive discipline, if nothing else. And hopefully they use their cap space to pick up assets this season. Why not?
Here’s the grid, if you’re into that sort of thing:
So how about the real season?
Western Conference: LeBron and AD proved to be unbeatable last season in the bubble, and I don’t think anyone has the goods to take them down this season — especially AD. He’s such a matchup problem for everyone. Ibaka gets the Clippers closer, but not quite. This is the season where the Mavs make a run, maybe to the Conference finals. Next year might be their year.
Eastern Conference: I want to say that this is the postseason that the Bucks put it together. I really want to say that. I don’t think this is it. They’re just not deep enough. They’ll have five seasons after this one to figure it out. This’ll come down to the Nets and the Heat, and I don’t think the Heat has an answer for KD. I mean, who does?
The Finals: It’s title #6 for LeBron, but this time, it’s AD who shines the brightest for the Lakers. The Nets give them a run, maybe six games, but they might need another season after this one to fine tune things around the edges.
And now for the individual honors:
Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic. He’s a monster, and it’s all coming together for him. There’s just no stopping him, and the narrative is there for him to take this Mavs team to the upper echelons of the Western Conference — especially if Kristaps doesn’t play much.
Defensive Player of the Year: Joel Embiid. He hasn’t won one yet. That’ll change this season. Doc will get it out of him.
Sixth Man of the Year: Here’s a curveball. Davis Bertans will win this. He’s one of the best shooters in the world, and he’ll be desperately needed to create space for Russell Westbrook.
Rookie of the Year: Obi Toppin will probably play the most, be most NBA ready at the start and put up the most counting numbers, but as LaMelo figures out the league, his magical passing highlights will make this a close race.
Most Improved Player: This is a weird category, considering how much Jamal Murray shocked us in the playoffs. But I feel like he can hit even another level.
Coach of the Year: Monty Williams. The Suns’ improvement this season continues from their bubble run, and he (and CP3) should get the credit.
All-NBA First Team: Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard.
All-NBA Second Team: Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell and Stephen Curry.
All-NBA Third Team: Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker and Joel Embiid.
Just missed: Paul George, Chris Paul, Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray, Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
One last thing: Did you see the names on the “Just missed” list? The talent level in this league is insane. And the trading deadline can see some major pieces change places and really disrupt everything I wrote before this.
Either way, this will be a season unlike any other, with decimated rosters and empty arenas and unique storylines and protests and so many other things you just can’t imagine. It’ll see superstars taking even bigger stands both on and off the court, and new stars elevating their games and finding their voices. There will be surprises. There will be disappointments. And, as the season goes on, we hope we see some normalcy. Please, let there be normalcy.
Which means that anyone stupid enough to post predictions about this season deserves the scorn they receive afterwards.
Are you listening, Steve? Steve?
